Alfred could track towards Queensland’s most populated areas
Tropical Cyclone Alfred could strike a large population centre, with forecasters predicting a hit anywhere from Brisbane to Mackay.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred could strike a large population centre, with forecasters predicting a hit anywhere from Brisbane in the southeast to Mackay in the north.
Alfred was expected to be elevated to a category-3 system by Wednesday night and is tracking south. On Wednesday it was well offshore, 1000km northeast of Townsville.
Concerns have been raised for a category-3 system hitting southeast Queensland, which a report two years ago said had building codes that were ill-prepared for cyclonic weather.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Felim Hanniffy said there was still “significant uncertainty” as to where the cyclone would move after Friday. “Expect Alfred to drift south over the next two or three days, but there is large uncertainty as we head into the weekend,” he said.
“The track is difficult to predict as to whether it will remain offshore or drift towards Queensland’s southern and central coast.”
Mr Hanniffy said if the cyclone tracked towards the coast it could hit dense coastal areas of central and south Queensland.
“Once we get into Wednesday we have areas of Mackay, right down to Brisbane and even into northern NSW in the potential forecast track map,” he said.
Alfred would cause significant damage if it hit southeast Queensland. The 2023 State Disaster Risk Report warned that building codes in the region were less cyclone-resistant than in Queensland’s north.
“Any severe cyclone impacting southeast Queensland is likely to result in extensive impacts, as the design criteria for houses in this part of the state is lower than those required for moderate category-3 cyclones,” the 2023 report said.
“From an emergency management perspective, the consequences of even a category-3 event would be extensive and require a far greater response and recovery effort compared to a similar intensity cyclone in northern parts of the state.
“It must also be considered that lower intensity cyclones (category 1 or 2) may present considerable impacts to southeast Queensland communities.”
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