ACT, Tasmania lead downward trend as growth slows in Australia, sparking hopes surge is fading

A downward trend in some states and slowing growth in all others fuel hopes Australia will soon be on the other side of the Omicron surge.

Covid active case numbers are falling in the ACT and Tasmania, while the rate of growth in every other state except Queensland has fallen dramatically in recent days, indicating Australia will soon be on the other side of the Omicron surge.

The decline is strongest in the ACT, where the daily increase in the seven-day average of active cases has gone from 32.77 per cent on Christmas Day to negative ­territory for the three days to Sunday, now sitting at -6.96 per cent.

Tasmania entered negative territory on Sunday, with the seven-day average of total active cases there at -1.8 per cent, down from a growth rate of 42.81 per cent on New Year’s Day.

In NSW and South Australia, the growth rate has been in declining single digits for six days, with NSW at 2.24 per cent on Sunday — down from a high of 19.59 per cent on December 19. South Australia’s growth rate on Sunday was 2.78 per cent, down from 55 per cent on Christmas Eve.

While Victoria’s growth has not slowed to the same extent, it entered single digits with a rate of 6.59 per cent on Sunday – down from a peak the previous Saturday of 30.10 per cent, which coincided with the state accepting rapid antigen test results for the first time.

Queensland lags behind, with growth on Sunday of 17.15 per cent, yet even this is a significant fall from Christmas Day, when the state’s seven-day average of active cases more than doubled.

Experts believe official case numbers in all states are being significantly underestimated because of difficulties accessing rapid antigen tests, delays processing PCR tests and the mildness of illness in some of those infected.

NSW has the highest known active cases of any state, with 342,838 on Sunday. Some 2650 people were in NSW hospitals with the virus, including 191 in ICU, with 61 on ventilators.

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard said half of those in ICU were unvaccinated, singling out the ward at Lismore Base hospital – in NSW’s anti-vax heartland in the Northern Rivers – to point out that all six of its patients earlier this week were yet to have a jab.

“You can’t get a clearer message than that. In a hospital, you have everybody who’s in the ICU unvaccinated,” Mr Hazzard said. “There is a message for the rest of the state. Go and get vaccinated.”

There were 237,559 known active cases in Victoria, with 1114 in hospital, including 122 in ICU, of whom 35 were ventilated.

Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said on Sunday there were “clear signs” NSW and the ACT might be close to the peaks.

Additional reporting: Jess Malcolm, Rhiannon Down