The stability of the Victorian government is in the hands of Daniel Andrews’ doctors.
The fall is self-evidently painful and unwelcome news for the Victorian Premier and his family, but the implications of the misstep may be wide.
The immediate challenge for the cabinet is to effectively dismantle, at least over the short term, the Andrews system of him being the administration’s north, south, east and west. His deputy, James Merlino, will not have the same authority as Andrews and will be required to function in a more inclusive manner.
He takes over the job, in an acting capacity, as the state approaches the first anniversary of the pandemic. The vaccination program, so crucial to any recovery, has only just started.
There is deep concern for the Premier’s welfare but — don’t you love politics — inevitable speculation about how long Andrews could be away from work, with little likelihood of any early return.
No one is openly stating that Andrews won’t return to work, but that hasn’t stopped speculation about a forced transition to a new leader. In that context, Merlino, who is said to now hold ambitions for the highest office, has been handed the opportunity to prove himself, potentially for three months or more, depending on the Premier’s recovery.
Merlino is a member of the Victorian Right faction, which has previously been reluctant to promote a candidate from within its own ranks to eventually replace Andrews. Victoria’s longest-serving female minister, Jacinta Allan, from the Left, is Andrews’ preferred candidate, but she is not the most popular person in caucus and will be closely watching how Merlino performs.
If Andrews is able to return to work in a meaningful capacity, he would remain Labor’s standout choice to go to the 2022 election. The state Coalition also would privately be hoping that Andrews is not there at the next election, with incumbency in the time of the pandemic an incredibly powerful political weapon — notwithstanding the official bungling that led to Victoria’s second wave.
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