A Coalition split is just not electorally credible
The Liberals have to adopt a clear policy on carbon emissions based on principles and be prepared to argue the case rather than hide in compromise corner.
Moderate metropolitan Liberal MPs fear the Nationals decision to dump the 2050 target will cost them their seats and prevent the Liberals from ever reclaiming the affluent city seats lost to the teal, climate change friendly independents at the last two elections.
(Tim Wilson’s return to Goldstein in Melbourne over a teal independent with Peter Dutton as leader seems to run counter to the idea it is impossible for Liberals to regain lost seats.)
The metropolitan moderates also accuse conservative Liberals – such as Andrew Hastie – of “costing us our seats”.
Nationals’ MPs, who have forced their leader, David Littleproud, into more and more conservative positions on the environment and climate change and accuse Liberals of jeopardising their seats under siege from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
With primary support for the Coalition crashing to a record-low 24 per cent and Sussan Ley’s net approval rating plunging to minus 33 in the latest Newspoll the fears, accusations, panic and divisions will only be accentuated.
The proposal that the Coalition split in Opposition to allow Liberals and Nationals to appeal to their contradictory electoral audiences is not new and there have been different policies offered from Opposition.
But, there are two major problems for this proposal: first, having different policies in opposition is bearable but untenable when offering both parties as an alternative government and; second, the Liberals cannot govern without the Nationals.
No Coalition alternative Government can offer diametrically opposed policies because one of them has to be dumped if they win an election. This is just fodder for Anthony Albanese to point to more division and a lack of a Coalition ability to govern.
Barring some bizarre Climate 200 teal coalition the Liberals cannot govern without the Nationals.
The most climate-friendly Liberal leader, Malcolm Turnbull, who lost his position as Opposition leader over climate change policy and squandered Tony Abbott’s landslide 2013 victory, was saved in 2016 by a single Nationals’ seat.
A Coalition split is not electorally credible and looking for short-term patch ups is doomed to failure.
Coalition MPs have to stop thinking about their own seats and start selling some principled ideas if they want to restore any chance of returning to government.
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The idea of splitting the Coalition over the policy of a 2050 net zero carbon emissions target is not a viable long-term solution, merely a mirage borne of panic and fight for survival.