Wrestling for position as Labor factional unrest heats up
There appears to be no lack of ambition in the federal Labor caucus for the leadership. There is, however, an absence of courage.
The stakes could not be higher for Anthony Albanese. The Labor leader starts a potential election year with his party deeply divided not only over policy but now also his leadership.
On Thursday the member for Grayndler, a Greens-soaked seat in Sydney’s inner west, moved to reset both with a major frontbench reshuffle.
It appeared to be a nod to the party reformers when he heeded the call to move Left faction ally Mark Butler out of the climate change portfolio, which senior figures in the Right had been demanding. But without policy changes or a shift in narrative, they now claim Albanese has done the reverse and guaranteed that another major misstep could cost him his job.
As one senior Labor figure said late last year, in a reference to the fumble by Kim Beazley in 2006 that led to him being shuffled out of office soon afterwards, he is only one “Karl Rove” moment away from the same fate.
“He hasn’t tried to appease anyone,” a senior Labor figure said of the reshuffle. “He has taken the bullhead approach and stuck his middle finger up to his enemies.”
The numerical divisions between Left and Right factions also have been challenged, while the leader’s prerogative of appointing allies and recruits to higher-paid parliamentary secretary positions has endowed Albanese with an executive team that now outweighs the backbench.
The question for Albanese now is not how he could conceivably carry Labor to an election victory in what will be another COVID-19 dominated year but whether he will survive long enough to convince his colleagues he has what it takes.
And what risks does a change of opposition leader, a potential threat such as Tanya Plibersek, pose to a seemingly unassailable Scott Morrison who, while popular, faces the reality he governs with a one-seat majority?
The vultures have been hovering around Albanese since NSW Right Labor veteran Joel Fitzgibbon resigned spectacularly from shadow cabinet in November last year, citing Albanese’s failures to address the structural and ideological schism within the party that lost it government in 2013 and has kept it out of office since. Since Fitzgibbon’s exit, the gears have shifted after months of private rumblings over Albanese’s performance.
Using speeches, opinion pieces published in national newspapers, policy reversals, and public interventions by aligned think tanks and unions, Bill Shorten, Chris Bowen, Jim Chalmers, Clare O’Neil, Plibersek and Fitzgibbon have begun positioning themselves in the event of a leadership challenge.
In Melbourne last weekend launching The Write Stuff, a collection of essays by Labor Right MPs and factional figures, Shorten set out an alternative approach for Labor and called for an opposition “that stands for something”.
“I have learnt the lessons of defeat and I have learnt, and the party has learnt, the dangers of taking too large or too cluttered a policy agenda to the electorate,” Shorten said. “But the polar opposite of a tiny agenda is not the right way either.”
This intervention has brought back into the open the deep divisions that have been festering since the shock 2019 election loss. Rather than returning to parliament on Tuesday leading a united opposition, Albanese leads a caucus appearing intent on repeating the public brawling that has torn down past Labor leaders.
On Friday Penny Wong, a long-time Albanese ally, pushed back at Shorten’s criticism over Labor’s “tiny” policy agenda, declaring he was leader for six years and failed at two elections. “Anthony will lead us to the next election and beyond. And I know there’s a lot of chatter. I know there’s a lot of commentary. We had six years with Bill and Tanya. Regrettably, we lost both elections,” Wong said.
Fitzgibbon, who came within a whisker of losing the coalmining seat of Hunter off the back of Labor’s ambitious climate change policies and anti-mining rhetoric, repeatedly has talked about the need to win back the regions, support mining and drag the ALP to the centre.
Bowen, who suffered a 7.36 per cent swing in his safe western Sydney seat, used his Jack Ferguson Memorial Lecture late last year as a pitch for Labor to target aspirational Australians in the suburbs.
Albanese used Thursday’s reshuffle to strip responsibilities from Plibersek and demote O’Neil, which has been viewed as punishment for their perceived insubordination. Moving Bowen into the climate change and energy portfolio hands one of the toughest Labor jobs to a leadership rival and puts pressure on the Right faction to deliver mainstream emissions and energy policies.
Announcing the sweeping frontbench shake-up, Albanese said he had sought the advice of former leaders and ALP figures. He knew his initial plan for a minimal reshuffle was untenable given the pressure building against his leadership.
Inquirer understands senior Labor MPs close to Albanese offered frank advice urging an overhaul of the frontbench team, moving Butler out of the climate portfolio and neutralising threats.
It is increasingly clear that outside of Albanese’s loyal supporters, the discontent is deep-seated across factions and states.
But in the absence of detractors coalescing behind a ticket, the leadership debate remains a threat. If Albanese cannot restore his authority and douse growing dissent, the long-term impact for Labor will be devastating.
The Beazley comparison is now being made frequently. Beazley’s Karl Rove gaffe in late 2006, one year out from Kevin Rudd’s federal election landslide victory over John Howard, handed enemies the ammunition to remove the two-time opposition leader.
In response to the death of Australian television host Rove McManus’s wife, Beazley told reporters: “The first thing I want to say is this: today our thoughts and the thoughts of many, many Australians will be with Karl Rove as he goes through the very sad process of burying his beloved wife.”
The misstep was ruthlessly exposed by rivals to remove Beazley, calling into question his health and using a Newspoll showing Labor slipping four points on primary vote to 37 per cent. Within weeks, Beazley was gone. In last year’s final Newspoll, Labor’s primary vote under Albanese remained stalled at 36 per cent.
With Albanese turning 58 in March, questions have been raised over his staying power and whether he is match-fit to take on Morrison in a bruising election campaign, with Labor desperate to pick up and retain seats in the battleground states of Queensland, Western Australia, NSW and Victoria.
Albanese’s car accident early this month, in which he suffered neck and back injuries after a head-on collision with a Range Rover, has sparked internal chatter over long-term health implications for the Labor leader.
Last weekend, Albanese conceded he continued to suffer pains and aches and was undertaking ongoing treatment. While no Labor MP would dare publicly question the physical wellbeing of their leader, concerns have been raised privately around Albanese’s health with an election potentially called late this year.
Albanese’s captain’s calls over summer, including holding a referendum on constitutional recognition for an Indigenous voice on January 26 and intervening in the furore over Margaret Court’s Australia Day gong, left colleagues dazed and confused.
With Linda Burney as opposition Indigenous Australians spokeswoman, Labor MPs said there was a clear expectation that Albanese should have brought forward a formal policy position to shadow cabinet before freelancing.
It follows similar criticism of Albanese following the US election after suggesting the Prime Minister had a “close relationship” with Donald Trump and “must have the courage” to urge the outgoing president to respect the democratic process.
There is a feeling inside Labor ranks that Albanese, while hamstrung by the power of incumbency during a pandemic and economic crisis, has shied away from rolling out alternative policies and opted for short-term hits aimed at true believers on Twitter.
Albanese faces his first test in the coming week as Labor MPs return to Canberra for their first caucus meeting of the year. While he may have bought himself time, the clock is ticking. There appears to be no lack of ambition in the caucus for the leadership. There is, however, an absence of courage.
Insiders say the contenders, Bowen, Chalmers, Plibersek, Richard Marles and Tony Burke, want to be drafted and only with the surety that they could win the election.
“For that reason, they will stick with him,” another senior Labor MP said. “But when enough people work out they aren’t coming back to Canberra after an election under Albanese, it will focus the mind.”
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