Donald Trump’s presidential legacy up in flames

Donald Trump’s reckless incitement of protesters has alienated even loyalists as the core of the Republican party deserts him.

At 3.45am on Thursday in Washington, moments after the congress certified Joe Biden as the next US president, Senate chaplain Barry Black offered a prayer and a lament for America.

“We deplore the desecration of the United States Capitol building, the shedding of innocent blood, the loss of life, and the quagmire of dysfunction that threaten our democracy,” Black said.

Hours later, as the sun rose over a bruised and battered Washington, many Americans must have pondered if this “quagmire of dysfunction” was now a permanent feature of their republic or a dark but fleeting moment in the American story, a phenomenon that will come and go with Donald Trump.

The deadly storming of the US Capitol by mobs of pro-Trump supporters incited by the President has changed the calculus of American politics. It has so shocked the nation that other momentous political news, such as the Democrats winning control of the US Senate this week, are but a footnote.

But it also has changed the calculus for Trump and his legacy.

The President’s decision to incite his supporters and ask them to march on the Capitol and “fight like hell”, and his refusal on that day to condemn the invasion, has united both sides of politics and much of the country against him. It is an anger that is palpable and extends well beyond the usual anti-Trump voices.

The core of the Republican Party, which stuck with Trump for four years, has all but abandoned him. Some, such as Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger, even have backed calls by Democrats for Vice-President Mike Pence and the cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment to the US constitution to remove Trump from office.

“We have to have a sane captain of the ship” because Trump has become “unmoored, not just from his duty or even his oath but from reality itself”, he says.

Senior Republican Liz Cheney said of Trump: “There is no question that the President formed the mob, the President incited the mob, the President addressed the mob. He lit the flame. What he has done and what he has caused here is something we’ve never seen before in our history. This will be a part of his legacy.”

Reliably pro-Trump conservatives such as Republican senator Tom Cotton said: “It’s past time for the President to accept the results of the election, quit misleading the American people, and repudiate mob violence.” Fellow Republican Roy Blunt added, “I’ve been here a long time. This might be the day I have the most concern about what America projected to the rest of the world.”

Trump’s behaviour has caused even his inner circle to desert him. transportation secretary Elaine Chao, education secretary Betsy DeVos, deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, deputy White House press secretary Sarah Matthews, special envoy to Northern Ireland Mick Mulvaney and first lady Melania Trump’s chief of staff Stephanie Grisham are among those who have submitted their resignations.

The attack on congress caused president-elect Biden to speak in terms rarely heard from the mild-mannered 78-year-old. Biden accused Trump of inciting the “mob” to make their “assault on the citadel of liberty”. “This is not dissent. It’s disorder. It’s chaos. It borders on sedition … It’s not protest. It’s insurrection,” he said.

A raft of former Trump cabinet members from Bill Barr to Jim Mattis also have accused Trump of inciting the riots.

“Orchestrating a mob to pressure congress is inexcusable,” Barr said. “The President’s conduct yesterday was a betrayal of his office and supporters.”

And Trump’s two most loyal servants during his presidency — Pence and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell — openly have broken with the President after he attacked them for not seeking to overturn Biden’s election victory.

Trump broke Pence by putting him in an impossible position, demanding that Pence commit an unconstitutional act of unilaterally overturning Biden’s electoral college victory in congress. Pence, who has stuck by Trump through thick and thin on every issue, is said to be furious about being hung out to dry by the President.

“I’ve known Mike Pence forever,” Republican senator Jim Inhofe said. “I’ve never seen Pence as angry as he was today.”

Protesters storm US Capitol

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But it was McConnell who delivered the most telling blow with a Senate speech that laid bare the threat that Trump’s attempts to overturn the election posed to US democracy. McConnell said if congressional Republicans, at Trump’s calling, succeeded in overthrowing Biden’s win “our democracy would enter a death spiral”. “Nothing before us proves illegality anywhere near the massive scale that would have tipped the entire election,” he said. “The voters and the states have all spoken. If we overrule them it would damage our republic forever.”

Trump’s push for the Republican-led Senate to challenge the electoral college vote ultimately was a failure, winning the support of just eight senators. With less than two weeks left in his presidency, Trump has no more options left to challenge Biden’s victory and belatedly has promised a peaceful transfer of power even if he is unlikely to attend the inauguration on January 20.

But what will Trump do in the time has left? He reportedly is stewing over the attacks on him by his former allies and pondering how he can retaliate.

The President’s social media megaphone — his prime method of retribution — has been muted. Twitter temporarily suspended his account this week, while Facebook and Instagram will suspend his accounts until after the inauguration. On Friday (AEDT) Trump, facing growing isolation from his closest supporters, released a video belatedly claiming to be “outraged” by those who stormed the Capitol. A day earlier he had called them “great patriots who have been badly and unfairly treated for so long”.

While Democrat leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have called for the 25th amendment to be used to remove Trump from office, such a dramatic move is unlikely.

Under the 25th, a president can be removed from office if the vice-president and a majority of the cabinet agree that he is incapable of serving. But with less than two weeks to go in his presidency, there would be little practical benefit to such a radical move even if it did have the support of Pence and the cabinet, which is doubtful.

Pelosi also has threatened that, as an alternative, congress may consider impeaching Trump for the second time. But there would be no practical outcome to putting the country through yet another impeachment ordeal with Trump already out of office.

Mitt Romney, the only Republican senator to vote to remove Trump from office in last year’s impeachment vote, said he would not support such a move this time.

“I think we’ve just got to hold our breath” until Trump’s term is up, he said.

Trump’s decision to spend his lame duck period since the election in November last year fighting an illusionary election fraud had damaged his legacy even before this week’s riots. It also has caused enormous damage to the Republican Party and to the cause of American conservatives.

Republican leaders blame Trump’s obsession with electoral fraud for the surprise loss of both Senate run-off elections in Georgia this week that delivered control of the Senate to the Democrats. As Georgia’s senior election official Gabriel Sterling, a Republican, put it, responsibility for the losses falls “squarely on the shoulders of President Trump and his actions since November 3”.

Trump has been so enraged that he lost the traditionally Republican state to Biden that he has spent months arguing that Georgia’s election system is rigged. He also has conducted an ongoing war against Georgia’s Republican Governor, Brian Kemp, and Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, for refusing to overturn the results.

Even when Trump reluctantly visited Georgia for a campaign rally this week to support Republican Senate candidates David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, he spent most of his speech complaining about how he actually won Georgia in a landslide.

Both Democrat candidates, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, were able to win because Republicans failed to turn out in the numbers needed. As a frustrated Cotton put it: “If you tell people that their vote doesn’t count, that the election is rigged, you shouldn’t be surprised when a few of them don’t turn out to vote and that looks like it provided the margin of victory.”

The irony is that Trump’s contribution to the loss of the Senate will fast-track Biden’s ability to unwind Trump’s legacy. The Senate now will be split 50-50 between the parties, with incoming vice-president Kamala Harris having the deciding vote in any tie.

This does not give Biden unfettered ability to implement his election agenda given that many major legislative decisions require 60 votes to pass. But Biden now has a much greater chance of delivering on promises such as expanding the Affordable Care Act, fighting climate change, and reforming infrastructure and the criminal justice system.

It also gives the left wing of the Democratic Party far greater sway to push their agenda — the agenda Trump spent his election campaign decrying as “socialist and radical”. By controlling the Senate for at least the first two years of Biden’s presidency, Democrats will control all Senate committees and set the legislative agenda.

Despite the unprecedented assault on congress this week and Trump’s two-month attack on the democratic process, the institutions of the US government ultimately prevailed.

Both houses of congress, including the Republican-led Senate, voted down Trump’s call to ignore the will of the people and overturn the result. Pence also chose to abide by his constitutional duty rather than back Trump’s demands.

In the states that Trump contested such as Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, state legislatures and election officials refused to buckle under enormous pressure from the Trump team.

And courts across the country, from local to federal, up to the Supreme Court, assessed allegations of fraud on their merits rather than be swayed by political pressure.

During Trump’s grievance-filled speech outside the White House this week, he spoke bitterly about how his three conservative appointments to the Supreme Court did not repay the favour when he needed them to overturn the election result. “You know what, they couldn’t give a damn … it seems like they are going out of their way to hurt all of us and hurt the country,” he said.

Trump’s post-election performance as President, culminating in his reckless incitement of the protesters who invaded the Capitol, may have torpedoed any plans he may have to run for president again in 2024.

Trump has alienated many of the senior Republicans he would need to court to run again, including McConnell, Pence and senators Cotton and Lindsey Graham.

The attack on congress would be a millstone around Trump’s neck that might make other ambitious Republicans such as Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley and Pence more likely to throw their hat in the ring to challenge him.

All up, the events of this week have been a disaster for Trump’s legacy and for his political future.

In his statement promising a peaceful transfer of power, Trump said: “While this represents the end of the greatest first term in presidential history, it’s only the beginning of our fight to Make America Great Again!”

But in four years Trump has lost the presidency — the first one-term president in a generation — and both houses of congress. He has lost the bulk of his own Republican Party and the support of many conservative commentators who once fawned over him.

Trump will be tarnished by his role in the events of this week, from his push to overturn the voters wishes in congress to the reckless incitement of his supporters to march on the Capitol. He will leave office a diminished and isolated figure, having incited the sort of American carnage that he promised to end. His challenge now will be to remind people that he also did some good things as president — because if history focuses only on his final chapter it will make for grim reading.