Trump-Biden rematch bodes ill for US and world

Donald Trump’s actions around Joe Biden’s inauguration were appalling at best, treason at worst. The courts soon will decide where his actions sit on that spectrum.

Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Rapid City, South Dakota, in September. Picture: AFP

As we usher in a new year, electoral politics will take centre stage, but not the contest here in Australia. The US presidential showdown will be the hit show – or more likely miss – of 2024, as the odds of a Joe Biden v Donald Trump showdown shorten.

The notion of this pair of ageing has-beens squaring off would have seemed absurd four years ago when Biden sent Trump packing after one term. It is hard to overstate the ignominy of a US president serving only one term. That was Republican George HW Bush’s fate, courtesy of a recession as well as a three-cornered contest against Democrat Bill Clinton and independent candidate Ross Perot in 1992. Democrat Jimmy Carter also lasted only one term before Reaganism took over.

The odds of a Trump resurgence might have seemed even longer than either of these one-term presidents making a comeback were it not for the Donald’s cultlike following. US primaries are geared towards populism, in a form that appeals to the party base. This is the case for both Democrats and Republicans but especially the latter. Trump’s style of campaigning suits the modern world of mistruths and social media.

Trump’s actions around Biden’s inauguration were appalling at best, treason at worst. The courts soon will decide where his actions sit on that spectrum.

But even if court decisions precede primaries or the general election, it is unlikely even adverse findings will diminish Trump in the polls. In fact his resurgence has been built on regular polling bumps each time proceedings are issued against him.

Before charges began being laid there was a sense that Trump the one-time loser went against his brand and his supporters would look for a younger alternative to support next time. Now that brand has been restored, bizarrely, as he again positions himself as an outsider fighting the Washington establishment. Except he is also part of the establishment, having set himself up as the established face of the Republican Party. Trump has money (not necessarily his own), momentum and the capacity to damage opponents mortally when targeting them.

Biden is especially susceptible to Trump’s take-down tactics. Four years on from their last showdown, Biden must carry the weight of incumbency like a crown of thorns atop of his head.

The economy is struggling, Biden also appears to be struggling, cognitively. His age has caught up with him in ways his detractors unfairly sought to target last time. Now, more voters want Biden to pull out than to contest the next presidential election.

Trump and several other Republican candidates lead Biden in the polls. And those feelings are echoed by Democrats. But so far no Democrat of note has been prepared to call time on Biden’s career and challenge him. Challengers are also-rans, ensuring Biden will win his party’s nomination, which only elevates Trump’s chances of victory at the general election.

What a miserable year for American politics and democracy worldwide a Trump victory in 2024 would be. What message would it send to Russia and Ukraine? What would it do to the US relationship with China? Would it put nations such as Australia in an awkward position balancing relationships? Could US allies be even remotely certain Trump would have their back in a crisis? And what would the return of Trump say about the decline of US hegemony?

The US has been in difficult positions before and recovered. But a second Trump term following defeat in 2020 would make his first-term antics – or those of the past four years while out of power – pale into insignificance. He would seek to dismantle the establishment bureaucracy, to interfere with the courts – in short, to seek vengeance on anyone and everyone who took delight in his defeat four years ago.

That would include many in the ranks of his own party, pushing it further to the populist right.

The US electoral system rewards populism, with its primary system, popular election of leaders and non-compulsory voting system, all of which favour Trump. Throw in the malapportionment that favours Republicans over Democrats in presidential showdowns, and a pathway to victory for Biden certainly seems harder than it was four years ago.

For Australia, a return to Trump would be difficult no matter which side of politics won the next election domestically. Our federal election almost certainly would take place after the presidential showdown next November. Uncertainty would be the order of the day. Diplomatic delicacy would reign supreme – on Australia’s side, certainly not on Trump’s. Expect the Canberra press gallery to try to catch out MPs, ministers, the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader with questions about Trump’s antics, hoping for a moment such as when future treasurer Josh Frydenberg labelled him a “dropkick” before Trump looked likely to beat Hillary Clinton.

A Trump candidacy (much less presidency) will be a distraction from the important domestic issues the new year will bring into sharper focus, such as what to do about inflation, lagging productivity and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. But Australia couldn’t just sit back and wait for a four-year Trump term to come to an end to restore business as normal.

That might never happen.

The biggest risk of Trump returning to the presidency isn’t the short-term chaos. It is the long-term cultural impact such a result would have – a profound shift in how the US did business, and what might come next. This is why Trump is a threat to democracy. He represents yet another erosion in support for its ideals because if he wins he’ll do so legitimately.

This is a point on which Biden must reflect given the baggage he would take into a second showdown. If he lost to Trump 2.0 it wouldn’t just undo the benefit of his victory the first time. It would leave the US worse off than if Trump had won in 2020 and we were now counting down to the end of his second, final term.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.