Take your seat for the big show in Eden-Monaro
The by-election in the federal seat of Eden-Monaro in NSW will be a unique event, with so much at stake for the main parties.
The by-election in the federal seat of Eden-Monaro in NSW will not only be the first contested during a pandemic for 100 years, but also the first conducted without mass meetings, the kissing of babies or handshakes.
But for all the novelty of the forthcoming campaign, the old political fundamentals will apply. What’s more, the impact of the by-election result will carry all, if not more, of the usual political weight and influence of a real electoral test, regardless of the circumstances.
There is a lot at stake and all four leaders of the main parties face risks and benefits.
Scott Morrison faces his first electoral test since his “miracle” victory at the federal election a year ago. He has the prospect of increasing his narrow two-seat majority in the House of Representatives to three. He can validate his extraordinarily high satisfaction level in polling. And he can be the first prime minister in a century to win a seat from the opposition at a by-election.
Anthony Albanese faces his first electoral test as Labor leader. He can keep within striking distance of parliamentary control by holding on to Eden-Monaro. He can demonstrate he is more popular and a better campaigner than Bill Shorten. And he can justify his deliberately negative personal attacks on the Prime Minister.
Nationals leader Michael McCormack faces his first electoral test since surviving a leadership challenge from former leader Barnaby Joyce. He has the opportunity to increase the Nationals’ relative strength in the Coalition. He can spread the Nationals back east of the Great Dividing Range. And he can banish the appearance of being a weak leader and a poor campaigner.
The Greens’ Adam Bandt faces his first electoral test as party leader and has the opportunity, in a seat with a strong Greens presence, to use climate change as an appeal to voters who were devastated by the bushfires.
The interaction of the four parties at the 2019 election was vital to retiring Eden-Monaro MP Mike Kelly’s victory for Labor, and will be even more important in the by-election brought about by his resignation due to ill health.
In 2019, the Liberal candidate, Fiona Kotvojs, pushed to within 1000 votes of Kelly after preferences, with a swing toward her of 2 per cent and a slightly bigger swing against Kelly and Labor.
The Greens polled 2000 more votes than the Nationals and ultimately delivered victory with a flow of preferences of 87 per cent to the ALP. So, at the last election, there was a swing away from Labor, a swing to the Liberals, a swing to the Greens that delivered the third-largest vote and a primary vote for the Nationals of just under 7 per cent.
The strategy for the by-election will involve a theme, candidate selection, expectation management, leaders’ involvement and a high level of remote campaigning.
Some of the themes are already clear. Albanese and Labor have bushfires, bushfires and bushfires. Morrison and the Liberals have coronavirus, the economy, and the coronavirus. And the Nationals have local, infrastructure, and local.
Labor has already effectively selected its candidate — Kristy McBain, the Mayor of Bega Valley Shire, who campaigned for mayor in 2016 as an independent and who was prominent during the summer bushfires that ravaged the seat of Eden-Monaro from the coast to the mountains.
Albanese and his candidate launched their campaign on Friday, citing the people in the electorate who were “crying out for help” and desperate because of the impact of the fires on their lives and businesses, as well as the drought.
“While I understand the COVID crisis has been here for the past month, six weeks, I’ve got businesses that have had no foot traffic since the turn of 2020,” McBain said on Friday.
“So, this is a situation where my community and the greater Eden-Monaro, who’ve all been impacted by the bushfires and drought, are struggling.”
Albanese said: “This (by-election) will be very much about local issues. It’ll be about the people of Eden-Monaro, who I think of when I’ve been on the ground there, during the bushfires.”
Albanese overtook Morrison at the beginning of February as preferred prime minister, according to Newspoll, for the first time, as Labor’s primary vote rose to a post-election high of 36 per cent, up two points since May last year.
Morrison’s satisfaction rating plummeted to 37 per cent in the same Newspoll survey after bad publicity over his trips to Hawaii before Christmas and to visit the residents of burnt-out Cobargo, in Eden-Monaro, who abused him and refused to shake his hand. This was in concert with Labor’s negative campaign on Morrison’s personality and leadership.
Labor’s script is clear: bushfires are Morrison’s weak spot.
Albanese was quick to declare the Coalition had to be favourite to win the by-election, that Kelly’s personal vote was worth 3 or 4 per cent, and that Labor was the underdog. Richard Marles, Labor deputy leader, said on Friday it would be tough but the ALP would give it a “red-hot go”.
This expectation management is not just about ensuring Labor voters engage and cast a vote during distracting times, but is insurance should the Coalition win.
Albanese can’t afford to be the first opposition leader to lose a seat at a by-election to the government in a century. His claim for the leadership was that he was more popular and a better campaigner than Shorten. Yet Shorten fought off a strong Greens challenge in the Melbourne by-election of Batman and delivered what could have been the final blow to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership when he held four Labor seats at by-elections, including Queensland’s Longman, which Turnbull had said he would win.
Turnbull also made the mistake of declaring “the Longman contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the prime minister and the opposition leader” and made it a test of his leadership. He was gone a little over a month later.
Albanese needs to win. And he needs it to look like a tough fight and as a success for his strategy to deal with Morrison. One campaign problem he faces is that Labor’s primary vote is not much above what it was at the election, and the ALP’s unpopular policies on tax and spending — which contributed to the swing against Kelly — are still strongly in the mind of an electorate that includes many self-funded retirees.
For his part, Morrison said a Liberal victory would be an “extraordinary outcome” and a one- in-a-100 year event, as he managed expectations of a loss, learning from Turnbull’s mistake.
Morrison’s theme for the campaign is dealing with the coronavirus and the economic cost of the pandemic, his personal strength, and building on the Coalition’s lift in its primary vote since the summer back to the election-winning level of 41 per cent.
“The government has a plan,” he said when asked about the by-election. “We are showing the leadership through this crisis that Australians are seeking from the government and, importantly, we are focused on what success looks like for our country. And it’s not just beating the virus.”
The Liberals’ candidate selection is more complicated than Labor’s, with the choice of running Kotvojs, recently installed senator Jim Molan, who lives near Queanbeyan, the biggest city in the electorate, or possibly NSW Liberal minister Andrew Constance, whose seat is in the federal electorate.
Molan could be expected to run a broader campaign but would be giving up his hard-won Senate place.
McCormack has committed to standing a candidate in an attempt to expand the Nationals’ weight in parliament and the Coalition. His problem with expectation management is that if NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro is encouraged to run by polling and wins, the expectation is the Nationals leadership will again be destabilised. If Barilaro, who’s NSW electorate is also in Eden-Monaro, runs he can expect a strong personal vote.
The by-election for Eden-Monaro is writing its own script for the players in a pandemic — but the rules haven’t changed, and nor has the political cost.
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