Someone’s blocking the drive to the Lodge, and cranky Bill’s sick of waiting

Ten days ago Bill Shorten was all smiles, but he’s realised there are still many ways to lose.

There is a path to victory for the Coalition, and Bill Shorten knows it. Picture: Kym Smith

Never mind Captain GetUp, can we talk about Captain Curt for a moment?

Bill Shorten is suddenly coming over all grumpy. He started his campaign looking so smooth — can it really be only 10 days since he was striding confidently into somebody’s kitchen in the Liberal seat of Deakin? — and now he’s all cantankerous.

Terse. That’s the word people on the Bill Bus are using. It’s like he’s thinking: give me the keys to the Lodge, and give them to me now. I’m ready, already!

Compare this with Agreeable Bill’s supercool performance in 2016. So pleased was he with himself back then, he did the victory lap, remember?

People had to remind him: er, Bill, you lost.

This time, he’s snarky, especially with the media.

On Thursday, he got stuck into “the News Corp climate change deniers and their ally the Prime Minister, a coal-wielding, climate-denying cave dweller”.

Calm your farm, Mr Shorten.

It wasn’t News Corp that got under your skin at that press conference.

The journo urgently, insistently seeking costings on your climate change policy was from Network Ten.

So, what’s the get-up with Captain Het-up? Look, it’s a little bit understandable.

This man has wanted this particular prize — Lodge for him, glory for his uptown girl — for a very long time, but the problem with being so close in a six-week, two-horse race is there are still so many ways to lose.

He can’t lose, can he?

The ALP has won 51 consecutive Newspolls across something like three years.

It is way ahead with the bookies, who last week had Shorten ahead of Winx.

Add to that the fact the Coali­tion has no seats to lose, literally none, being a minority government.

It’s over, or so everyone says, in capital letters, bold type and italics. OVER.

Except it’s not over. There is a path to victory for the Coalition, and Mr Grumpy, sorry, Shorten knows it.

The Coalition has 73 seats in a newly constituted 151-seat parliament (factoring in redistributions).

It is bound to lose a few, starting with Dickson in Queensland, where Peter Dutton is unlikely to recover from bagging out his one-legged opponent.

But there are seats for the Coali­tion’s taking, too. Shall we follow those crumbs, see where they lead?

Let’s say the Coalition snatches Wentworth back from Kerryn Phelps. No, it’s not impossible. Wentworth was a Liberal seat for 60 years before she took it. Some people voted for Phelps not thinking she’d win; some because they were furious about what happened to their previous MP, Malcolm Turnbull.

The Liberal candidate in Wentworth, Dave Sharma, is quietly raising lots of money, and meeting lots of people.

The Coalition doesn’t want to make too much of how well he’s doing, actually, because that will prompt GetUp to swarm back into the seat, pretending to be independent, LOL.

OK, so a recovered Wentworth gets the Coalition back to 74. Does that matter if it’s going to lose Warringah?

Except that it may not lose it. Independent Zali Steggall’s campaign has momentum, but Tony Abbott’s margin is more than 11 per cent, and her campaign is backed by, yes, GetUp, which smells a bit this time.

For now, let’s assume Abbott hangs on and that the Coalition also grabs Lindsay in western Sydney. It’s held by Emma Husar, who says the Labor Party slut-shamed her out of her seat.

The Coalition suddenly would be at 75.

What then of Indi, in Victoria?

The independent, Cathy McGowan, is retiring.

Indi hasn’t had a Labor member since 1928, and even then it happened by accident, when the Country Party candidate forgot to get his papers in on time. The Coali­tion is now at 76.

Heading down to Tasmania, well, the Coalition got smashed there in 2016, losing Bass, Braddon and Lyons.

Could it conceivably get one of them back? Well, Bass has changed parties at seven of the past nine elections, so, sure.

Let’s give the Coalition Bass or ­Braddon. Either would bring it up to 77.

Then you’ve got those seats that had to be counted, and counted again, before they were handed to Labor in 2016: Cowan, a traditionally conservative seat, is held by Anne Aly on a margin of 0.07 per cent; Herbert is held by Labor’s Cathy O’Toole, on a margin of 37 votes, or 0.02 per cent.

The conservatives also have one eye on Solomon in the Northern Territory, which Labor won with a massive swing in 2016.

Suddenly they’re on 80.

If they can keep losses in Victoria to two (Dunkley and Corangamite); if they can convince voters in Chisholm to let them swap out Julia Banks for one of their own; if they can hold what they’ve got in Western Australia and South Australia …

Look, nobody on the conservative side is saying it’s going to be easy. It’s going to be tremendously difficult for the Coalition, not least because not only does it have no seats to lose, it has to put them on.

Which, by the way, Bob Hawke did in 1987.

Which, just saying, John Howard also did in 2001.

Over? It’s not over, so maybe turn that frown upside, Mr Shorten. You’ve still got a race to win.