So many choices for voters makes five weeks an eternity for Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton

The generational surge in support for minor parties has so changed our political landscape that the 2025 election promises to be the most unpredictable in our history.

Jim Chalmers prepares to deliver his fourth budget at Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday, this week Picture: David Gray/AFP

You can now listen to The Australian's articles. Give us your feedback.

You can now listen to The Australian's articles.

The 2025 election promises to be the most interesting and unpredictable in the history of our federation. Predicting federal election outcomes was rarely easy but never has it been harder or more complex.

The political landscape is changing dramatically. When Bob Hawke was first elected in 1983, the major parties shared 90 per cent of the primary vote. It has been declining ever since, falling to just 68 per cent at the 2022 election. Never have the punters had so many choices. The number of minor parties continues to grow, as does their aggregate vote.

When voters grow disillusioned or they’re doing it tough, the established parties wear the blame. That is what has been happening in liberal democracies around the world. Australia is no exception. Yes, Donald Trump recently led an established political party to victory, but he offered something very different to the status quo and enough people liked it.

In this context only the most optimistic on the Labor side believes the government can hold the 76 seats required to remain the government without relying on crossbench support. Indeed, a net loss of only three electorates will put Labor below that magic number. Yet it holds three seats on political margins of less than 1 per cent.

Equally, Peter Dutton must pick up 22 seats and keep all those he currently holds to win government in his own right.

Since Trump’s comeback I’ve learned never to say something is impossible. But the election of a majority Dutton government would require a swing of a magnitude we’ve not seen since 1996. Highly unlikely.

So, it seems we’re heading for another hung parliament. That’s bad news for the Australian economy, whichever party governs.

While possible, a Dutton minority government is unlikely. If the Coalition picks up 10 seats it will be quietly celebrating, and Dutton’s position as leader will be safe. But that would leave him well short of Labor’s seat count and potential allies on the crossbench are few.

So, my prediction in these early days is a Labor minority government. Of course, a week is a long time in politics and five weeks is an eternity. Much can go wrong, and lots can go right for each of the contestants.

Further, local and global events during a campaign can shift the policy focus. For example, a national security event would be unhelpful for Labor. Alternatively, any event that shifts the focus to health, education or social policy would benefit Labor.

The leaders will make mistakes too, some forced, some unforced. In the end, some won’t matter but in such a tight contest, some will.

Anthony Albanese, blessed with good party discipline and solidarity, begins the campaign with momentum, and confidence. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

There were those in Labor who believed the PM had waited too long to call the election. But it now seems he timed it just right. When his backbenchers filed out of the House of Representatives chamber on Thursday night their heads were up, higher than at any time in recent months.

Anthony Albanese begins the campaign with momentum, and confidence. A turnaround from where he was only a month ago. He is also blessed with good party discipline and solidarity. We should not expect any of his team do go off message during the campaign. Further, the Labor Party’s campaign machine is a formidable one, and that matters.

Peter Dutton has been underestimated and that has done him no harm. He appears to be match fit and he’s been disciplined in his messaging.

The transition from government to opposition is a tough one and it throws up many challenges. Disunity is one of them. Dutton has managed to hold his team together, accommodating ambitions and navigating a pathway through policy tensions, particularly those between the Libs and the Nats. However, it’s a fragile peace and keeping it will be crucial to his competitiveness.

Peter Dutton during his budget reply speech. If the Coalition picks up 10 seats it will be quietly celebrating, and Dutton’s position as leader will be safe. Picture: Martin Ollman

But most crucial is the cost-of-living contest. Rarely has one issue so dominated a campaign. Whoever wins the cost-of-living debate wins this election.

On this front incumbency is an advantage. People may consider Labor’s tax cut modest, but it adds to earlier measures, and it’s already legislated. Those managing the family budget can almost touch it. Peter Dutton’s fuel excise play was smart and has appeal, but it remains a promise from the underdog. Different thing.

Energy costs are a problem for Labor. But for voters, the question becomes: Does a change in government fix it? I doubt enough people think so to tip the scales the Coalition’s way.

Labor has talked a lot about housing and housing affordability. The success of its housing policies won’t be known pre-election and therefore Labor should do relatively well in this crucial policy space.

Both major parties have missed the opportunity to address regulatory burden. A no-cost promise. Let’s hope it’s not too late.

Buckle up, it’s going to be a wild five-week ride.

Joel Fitzgibbon was Labor member for the NSW seat of Hunter from 1996-2022 and is a former minister for defence.