Scott Morrison manages to side-step failures on waltz to election

Battle hardened from the bushfires the PM has used the experience to reclaim credibility and dominance during the pandemic.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

This year is likely to be the year Scott Morrison wins re-election. Going to the polls early, late in the year rather than in 2022, to take advantage of the positive glow he and his government is enjoying courtesy of the pandemic. The vaccine rollout should be in full swing by then, and as long as the Coalition doesn’t stuff that up, Australians will be sufficiently grateful.

It doesn’t take too much imagination to realise how much more devastating the virus could have been. Looking around the world makes for grim observation.

Morrison will want to get to the polls before the risk of an economic backlash presents itself. While the Coalition can always fall back on the tired and factually questionable claims that they are the better economic managers compared with Labor, the possibility of a slow recovery with higher than anticipated unemployment presents political uncertainty Team Morrison would rather minimise.

In short it’s a more manageable reality at the end of this year than, for example, after a 2022 budget (or end of 2021 financial update) is handed down.

But it’s what is likely to get lost in the next election campaign that Australians should be focused on. Yes, pandemic management has been important. But federal Labor wouldn’t have made the bad situation any worse. If anything their collective caution may have seen Australia do better, achieving elimination (or slow enough to thereto) like New Zealand. Besides, state governments of both political colours are more responsible for the good outcomes from this pandemic.

The failures, across aged care, disability care, hotel quarantine and border protection are federal responsibilities one and all. Yes the Commonwealth ceded some of those responsibilities to the states, which frankly only rebuts the federal government’s bleating about states exceeding their collective remit.

What follows represents a build up of rats and mice failures beyond the pandemic during this government’s last 12 months in office. Big failures to be sure, just not when a once in a generation pandemic is sweeping the globe.

The Robodebt settlement was extraordinary. $1.2bn to silence the expose of failures that led to people committing suicide. To say that Morrison — as the Minister responsible for conceiving of the policy in the first place — should be ashamed is an understatement. The land deal near Sydney’s second airport which saw a Liberal Party donor receive ten times the value of the land sold to the Commonwealth ($30m instead of $3m) added to the rorting of sporting grants exposed shortly after the election. Morrison’s lack of curiosity about getting to the bottom of these dodgy dealings was in sharp contrast to his sharp and unprofessional response to Christine Holgate’s decision as chief executive of Australia Post to award bonuses to some of her executives.

The PM saw an opportunity to slap down a senior businesswoman, and used cowards castle to do it, attacking her in Question Time. Saying he’ll make damn sure she steps aside. Never mind that she was entirely within her rights to award the bonuses, they were nominal and endorsed by the chair of her board.

This was all uncovered as part of an investigation after the fact, but the report no doubt clearing Holgate of wrong doing was suppressed. Cabinet considered it and decided not to release it. Using cabinet confidence to cover-up is one step above using cowards castle to vilify.

One of the little spoken about background to the hostility Holgate faced is that she stood up to the government on a number of occasions when it came to public policy settings affecting Australia Post. While that is her duty as chief executive it was viewed dimly.

Cover-up and payback are contagious within this government. The Office of the Auditor General incurred a similar wrath. As one of the few independent bodies capable of holding government accountable it had its operating budget slashed in the 2020 budget. Less money means fewer investigations, which given all manner of wrongdoing the Auditor General has exposed in recent years the Coalition will clock up as another win. Democracy shouldn’t. At a time when parliament is being stymied, the opposition is largely ineffectual and executive government runs rampant, an office like the Auditor General’s becomes even more valuable.

None of the above should be considered rats and mice failures, but that’s the way a distracted public sees them, if they notice such poor governance at all. The media too shows little interest.

In a sign Morrison isn’t weighed down by the collection of poor governance under his stewardship, his first media conference of 2021 was a triumph. The Prime Minister looked relaxed and comfortable, and he hadn’t even started his January holiday yet. Morrison announced a change to the national anthem as a substitute for a meaningful response to the Uluru statement and he even seemed at ease with the ongoing border battles. Morrison simply reminded people that such powers are in the hands of the premiers and they will be held accountable for the consequences, good or bad.

Previous frustration with this constitutional reality replaced by acceptance. Confidence borne out of the knowledge that the Coalition has the next election in the bag as long as Morrison doesn’t lose his head.

Meanwhile, it is Anthony Albanese who will return from the summer break battered and bruised. Not only did he suffer a near-death experience when his car was hit hard on the driver’s side (political leaders always face risks on their right flank but not usually like that), but Albo also faces the risk of being challenged in the first half of this year. Yes Labor’s leadership rules help protect him, but they are far from a complete vaccination from the virus of leadership instability.

The state of Australian politics now is a far cry from where it was at this time last year. Back then a miserable Morrison was feeling sorry for himself under siege for his mismanagement of the bushfires. Unable to rise to the challenge after jetting back from a secret holiday in Hawaii while Australia burned.

Credit where credit is due, Morrison took his opportunity to bounce back from the quagmire all of his own making. Battle hardened from the bushfires he used the experience to reclaim both credibility and dominance during the pandemic, coming out the other side the overwhelming favourite to win the next election. How good are pandemics? How good is Scott Morrison? Someone really should write a book about everything that happened.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University. How Good is Scott Morrison? (with Wayne Errington) will be published by Hachette in April.