Scott Morrison could retire as a Liberal legend

My money is on Scott Morrison doing what few prime ministers do: calling it quits on his own terms.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison could go out on top.

Predictions in politics are always fraught with danger, but one seemingly immutable certainty is that Scott Morrison will win the next federal election, whether it’s held late next year or in early 2022. Less certain is what he does on the other side of that victory.

My money is on Morrison doing what few prime ministers do: retiring thereafter on his own terms, before the following election. Were he to do so Morrison would be elevated into the upper echelons of Liberal Party heroes.

Consider his track record, remembering that it’s diehard Liberals who will be applauding.

As immigration minister he stopped the asylum-seeker boats: Morrison is so proud of having done so that as Prime Minister he has a trophy on his desk that reads “I stopped these”, with an image of a rickety asylum-seeker vessel. Tasteless, yes, but for the record he didn’t order it for himself. It was given to him.

Let’s paper over Morrison’s brief time as social services minister, when he conceived of the robo­debt scheme that hurt so many, and fast forward to his stint as treasurer, when Morrison managed to slot a surplus forecast into his budget. Although it was never realised, Liberals still will laud the achievement. Tax cuts are something he also oversaw, red meat for the Liberal base.

But it is as Prime Minister that Morrison’s achievements in the eyes of conservatives really take hold. He won a seemingly unwinnable election, thereby denying a union man access to the Lodge. He also led Australia through the coronavirus pandemic, such that we are coming out the other side of it as well placed as any other nation. Forget the role of the premiers and chief ministers.

A five or six-year tenure as Prime Minister coupled with two election wins, successful management of a pandemic and an orderly departure would put Morrison in rarefied air. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

If Morrison does win the next election, as he surely will, doing so almost certainly would see him increase the conservative major­ity at consecutive elections, similar to John Howard’s successes in 2001 and 2004.

Bedding down last year’s win and lengthening the Coalition’s time in power to a minimum of 11 years would match Howard’s electoral success, albeit with this Coalition government having burned through two prime ministers in the first half of that time.

Morrison will be seen as the stabilising force who lifted the Coalition government off its knees.

If Morrison retires around two years into his next term he’ll do what Howard couldn’t bring himself to do: deliver generational change and depart at a time of his choosing. Only Robert Menzies had done that, albeit after a 17-year reign as prime minister, not five or six years.

But modern politics is much faster. A five or six-year tenure as Prime Minister coupled with two election wins, successful management of a pandemic and an orderly departure would put Morrison in rarefied air. He might not have the length of service of a Menzies or the policy achievements of a Howard, but Liberals wouldn’t care if he departed with dignity.

An orderly handover is a key ingredient in legacy building on the right of Australian politics. Howard missed that chance and was penalised with an electoral defeat that included losing his own seat. His policy achievements and length of tenure preserved his standing, especially when the Labor years that followed became so tumultuous.

Morrison won’t have much by way of policy achievements to fall back on, and having taken over as Liberal leader just before a third term in government makes a long-term stint in office more difficult. But the marketing-savvy Prime Minister would know he can make up for that by denying his detractors the satisfaction of departing politics a defeated man.

And now that Josh Frydenberg is the clear heir apparent, an organised handover midway through the next term looks like a move right out of the Morrison playbook. Which is not to say there aren’t barriers to it happening. None of them involves the Labor Party rising up to seriously challenge Morrison.

The barriers are what all prime ministers run into: ego, addiction to power, enjoyment of the harbourside mansion and believing the applause from sycophants who tell them what they want to hear. Morrison is every bit at risk of being drawn into such worldly vices as anyone, but his marketing savvy may be the antidote that saves him. It’s made easier when a prime minister doesn’t hold strong policy goals that may entice them to keep chipping away.

Morrison is no ideologue — the values he holds strongly to are conservative family values, connected with his Pentecostal faith. But much of what exists within that belief structure he can’t hope to legislate because it isn’t reflective of the modern mainstream.

One barrier to Morrison departing at a time of his choosing that other prime ministers haven’t faced is the financial impact of doing so. Morrison is one of the highest paid world leaders and were he to quit he wouldn’t benefit from the old parliamentary super scheme. Unlike Paul Keating, Howard, Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd or Tony Abbott, Morrison won’t get a generous lifetime pension. And he is only in his mid-50s. By pulling the pin in a few years, Morrison would retire at a younger age than Howard was when he became prime minister in 1996.

Malcolm Turnbull was the first prime minister to miss out on the generous super payments, but his wealth makes that irrelevant. That said, Morrison doesn’t strike me as especially materialistic, even though his Pentecostal faith sometimes preys on expectations of personal and material success. Becoming prime minister should sufficiently tick that box.

Morrison supporters might read this and hope that he doesn’t retire so soon, given that his chances of continuing to win elections seem good right now. But the bushfires last summer highlight how quickly popularity can fade. Get out while the going is good is a slogan Morrison may choose to live by. A lot could depend on who Labor turns to in the aftermath of defeat at the next election.

If Morrison thinks he has their measure, he’ll be tempted to fight on. Howard thought the same when Labor turned to Kim Beazley after its 2004 defeat, only to face off against Rudd a year out from the 2007 election. The result was a landslide away from the conservatives in Rudd’s home state, Queensland.

Morrison detractors will simply hope that I’m as wrong about the next election as I was about the last one. I’ll happily wear it as a badge of shame if I am.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.