Revolt, revulsion and reform: What lies ahead for the side that loses

The last thing that appears to be on the agenda is serious debate about the economic future of our country.

Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese shake hands during the third leaders' debate at Seven Network Studios on Day 31 of the 2022 federal election campaign, in Sydney, Wednesday, May 11, 2022. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

With one week left until the campaign is over, it’s worth considering what the state of each major party will look like if they fail in their bid to convince Australians to hand them power for the next three years.

Labor would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for a second consecutive election, the reverberations from which would be profound. For the Coalition, it would be a return to the wrong side of the Treasury benches after nearly nine years in office. Papering over dissenting cracks would be hard to maintain in opposition.

While the devastation of defeat would be greater for Labor, given high expectations of victory, the consequences for both parties could be catastrophic. The only caveat is the prospect of a hung parliament. The potential for any opposition to unite around a theme of destruction – labelling the minority government dysfunctional and undermining its existence and legitimacy – was established by Tony Abbott during the 2010 parliament.

It creates an unedifying spectacle to be sure, but the political potency can’t be underestimated. However, if either major party wins with a majority, the defeated party will have to face up to some serious soul searching.

Labor would likely see a revolt from generation next: those who are mostly on the backbench, having entered parliament since Labor lost government, demanding those who held ministerial positions during the Rudd and Gillard years, and still dominate the Labor frontbench, vacate the space.

Anthony Albanese’s frontbench is the most experienced ­incoming line-up in modern political history. That’s a good argument for a strong start to government if they return to power. But it allows for an equally powerful case to be mounted that most of them should move on if a fourth consecutive defeat eventuates. They would all be confirmed four-time losers.

The personnel clean-out would need to be accompanied by a serious debate about what ­modern Labor stands for, and what it needs to do to reclaim the centre ground in working class suburbs. That’s because Scott Morrison’s only pathway to ­victory involves retaining and reclaiming seats in outer metropolitan growth corridors.

The more likely scenario – at least according to the opinion polls – is a Labor victory forcing the Coalition into opposition, requiring it to confront what went wrong. If that happens, the challenges for the right of politics in this country are immense.

For a start, who leads the Liberal Party after a defeat? Josh Frydenberg might not even be there to put his hand up as an alternative candidate to Peter Dutton. If the teal offensive does well it could knock out moderate Liberals right around the country. Potential senior ministers, even leaders of the future, such as Dave Sharma and Tim Wilson or important female voices in the party including Katie Allen and Celia Hammond.

Teal success could stifle what little influence the moderates currently have within the Liberal Party, ironically given that their criticism is that moderates haven’t done enough to date.

And if Dutton is given an unencumbered ride into the opposition leadership because Fry­denberg is defeated in his seat by a teal independent, who will occupy senior shadow ministerial portfolios around him with leadership potential in the years ahead? Not Christian Porter, he’s gone. Not Alan Tudge, he’s too damaged. The best women are in the upper house not eligible to lead the opposition: Marise Payne, Anne Ruston and Jane Hume. So is Simon Birmingham, one of the few senior moderates in the ­parliamentary party.

The only serious contenders to Dutton for the leadership are Paul Fletcher and Angus Taylor, but the former hasn’t shown the charisma needed to lead and the latter has largely been put in the freezer during this campaign. Hence neither really are serious.

Andrew Hastie is a conservative leader of the future, but that should be 10 years away. He is only an assistant minister now. The natural party of government, as Liberals see themselves at the federal level, won’t want to wait that long for its next messiah to emerge.

If the Coalition loses this election perhaps its next PM isn’t even in the parliament yet? Will it consider gender quotas, or continue to tolerate inadequate female representation in its ranks? And who leads the Nationals after an election loss? Do they stick with Barnaby Joyce, return to Michael McCormack or hand over to a new generation in David Littleproud? The Nationals are as divided as the Liberals, which can be even more debilitating in such a small partyroom.

Yet the problem of personnel is the easiest solution for the Coalition to confront in opposition. What about the reality that the things that divide moderates and conservatives are now greater than the things that unite them? Gone are the days were the two factions could at least see eye-to-eye on matters economic. That legacy of John Howard and Peter Costello has been thoroughly trashed by this do-nothing, debt accumulating, non-reforming government – afraid of its own shadow when it comes to tax, IR and federation reforms.

And what about the Coalition? Does it fracture in opposition like it did in the 1980s? Nationals have become so used to pork barrelling from the senior Coalition partner, when that stops in opposition how are Liberals going to coerce Nationals into agreements on issues like climate change? What are the consequences for the amalgamated LNP in Queensland? The Nationals in opposition will be increasingly tempted to dissociate from Liberals to help stave off minor party challenges.

Defeat federally would see the Liberals out of power in every mainland state except NSW, and the election there is due early next year. The NSW branch is the most divided Liberal division in the country, and the state government is onto its fourth premier, showing all the signs of a government on its last legs.

Australia needs strong, constructive opposition in the aftermath of this election to encourage better reforming government. Especially given that Albanese’s opposition has adopted a small-target strategy. There aren’t obvious major mandated reforms ready to go after May 21 if it wins.

For Australia to succeed we need the next government to get serious about economic reforms which lift productivity to help raise wages without stoking inflation and interest rates. For that to happen, a degree of bipartisan interest in good policy development will be necessary.

Without such a calibration it’s likely the victors will take the spoils but spoil any chance of confronting the difficult reforms the nation needs.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.