Peter Dutton’s road to power may rely on state result

Peter Dutton needs the NSW Liberal Party machine to remain functional to give himself a shot at government federally.

Those who now write off Peter Dutton as similarly unelectable, without any deeper thought, should remember their history. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

Voters tend to discern between tiers of government when evaluating the partisan performances of political parties. But such differentiation doesn’t mean that election outcomes at state level have no significance for the political contest federally, and vice versa.

This weekend’s NSW election also matters in the federal context. If Premier Dominic Perrottet finds a way to scramble to victory and secure the Coalition an unprecedented fourth term in power, he will retain his title as the most senior Liberal in the country.

His only realistic path to victory appears to be as a minority government, cobbling together a mishmash of crossbench pledges to extend the Coalition’s time in govern­ment.

Elongating time in power isn’t always in a party’s best interests. The legacy of the NSW Labor government (1995-2011) would have been better had Labor lost the 2007 state election. It was beset by scandals galore in its final term, also cycling through several premiers.

This Coalition government already has hit such unwanted benchmarks, yet it remains in the electoral contest.

While the odds are against a Coalition win on Saturday, that it remains a possibility is hard to fathom. Half the ministry has resigned, been sacked or lost preselections going into this poll – not exactly a ringing endorsement. It raises serious questions about the job Labor in opposition has done to build itself into a viable alternative.

Labor leader Chris Minns presents well, has a solid pedigree and avoided the temptation in opposition of doing little other than carp from the sidelines. For example, he offered strong support for government decision-making during the pandemic.

It may be a case of virtue crippling electoral chances but, if Minns does carve out a narrow victory, such pragmatism should help him to govern effectively.

Betting markets and most commentators believe Minns will win. I’m also bestowing the kiss of death on him. A Labor victory would put the conservative side of politics out of power across the entire mainland.

Peter Dutton needs the NSW Liberal Party machine to remain functional to give himself a shot at government federally. He needs to retain the Coalition’s share of seats in the most populous state, perhaps even winning back marginal ones such as Robertson and Reid lost at last year’s election. It will be easier to tar and feather Labor if it’s in charge at both tiers of government in NSW, but not if state Liberals descend into madness.

The federal Opposition Leader, for one, will be hoping that a tight loss retains discipline in state Liberal ranks, even in defeat.

The only two options appear to be minority government or a narrow majority; a Labor landslide isn’t on anyone’s radar. That said, with upwards of 30 per cent of NSW voters still undecided, anything can happen. If a collective mood for change takes hold, a landslide suddenly can ensue.

Federally, the difference between a narrow Labor majority and minority government matters little. NSW terms are fixed at four years. Notwithstanding the challenges of governing in minority, the next NSW state election won’t be until well after the next federal poll. Besides, state Labor has shown it has the skills to turn narrow victories into larger majorities at subsequent elections.

Steve Bracks did it in Victoria; Mike Rann did it in South Australia; and Bob Carr did it in NSW, winning with a one-seat majority in 1995 before trouncing the Coalition four years later, as well as four years after that.

To be sure, Anthony Albanese will welcome Minns into the incumbency fold if he wins, but federal Labor also won’t mind an unlikely defeat. That’s because while voters do discern between state and federal issues at the ballot box, wall-to-wall Labor governments can make re-election that little bit harder. Minns is battling against that narrative now.

The resource advantages that come with incumbency are more than mitigated against by the sentiment partisan balance has been lost – as long as the other side of politics doesn’t fall into a heap (a tale in opposition the conservatives are well known for).

In the 93-seat NSW Legislative Assembly, 47 seats secures majority government. That means Labor needs to pick up nine seats without losing any to govern on its own. As a minority government it would be assured of the support of the three Greens MPs, assuming they are re-elected, so the magic number at a minimum for Labor becomes 44 seats, netting no fewer than six pick-ups.

If NSW Labor can’t even do that after 12 years of Coalition rule, four premiers, a mass exodus from the frontbench in the past year and endless scandals, the scars of defeat will run deep. Frankly, a narrow victory should be cause for concern, but in victory don’t expect Labor to self-reflect so critically, at least not publicly.

Whatever the federal implications from Saturday’s results, what happens next weekend will have a more immediate impact on Dutton’s leadership. The by-election for the Victorian federal seat of Aston takes place on April Fools’ Day, and it would appear the Liberals are set to retain it. Dutton recently declared the showdown a leadership test for himself and the Prime Minister. It’s hard to imagine he would have done that if internal polling showed Liberals stumbling towards defeat.

While the federal opposition should hold on to Aston (by-elections don’t usually result in swings towards governments), doing so with any amount of comfort will reinforce in the minds of Liberal strategists that they are on a winner targeting cost-of-living issues ahead of the next federal election.

That has been the campaign theme they have run with since Alan Tudge announced his retirement. The messaging has been helped along by more interest rate rises, new superannuation taxes and spikes in energy prices.

While the Minns approach to opposition in NSW has included a level of collegiality, don’t expect Dutton to act similarly. His style is more likely to emulate Tony Abbott’s when squaring off against Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard.

Abbott is much maligned for his brief time in power, but his success as an opposition leader can’t be disputed. Despite being billed as unelectable among the chattering classes, Abbott disintegrated Rudd, damaged and vanquished Gillard, then crushed Rudd at the 2013 election. And he did so having taken over the reins of an utterly divided and maligned party.

Those who now write off Dutton as similarly unelectable, without any deeper thought, should remember their history.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.