Peace in our time: why PM has the winning leader’s seat

Scott Morrison’s government is unriven by the debilitating power battles of past decades.

Scott Morrison is staying on message about the surplus and growth. Picture: AAP

As Scott Morrison prepares for his second September parliamentary sitting as Prime Minister — the so-called “killing season” — he is doing so in the knowledge that the preparation is against a background of the most stable leadership, the strongest party unity, the least internal dissent, the clearest policy prescription and the best political strategy of any government in 30 years.

Even the second term of the victorious Howard government, after the 1998 GST and One ­Nation electoral battering, had more dissent, internal divisions and leadership tensions (as well as facing a more unified and confident­ Labor opposition) than Morrison does now.

This is not just because of the “miracle” election victory in May wrought by Morrison and the Liberal campaign team, which has given him almost unpreced­ented authority and Labor despon­dency.

The Coalition ascendancy is because of a web of relationships and behaviour that Morrison and his senior ministers have developed internally, as well as beyond the parliamentary circle, which can so easily become subject to distraction and introspection.

Going into the September spring parliamentary sittings the Coalition has already delivered its biggest election promise of tax cuts legislated into the future, it is preparing a new onslaught­ on border protection laws. It refuses to take Labor’s bait on distractions, it can have outspoken debate without damage, and it is sticking by its economic election agenda. Most of all, the party is unified: there is no sniping or undermining, no grounds for even imagining debilitating, subterranean leadership plotting, a factor­ that has weakened or destroye­d the past five prime ministers before Morrison.

This is where the relationships and attitudes of senior ministers, starting with Morrison’s handling of the team, are vital and put the Coalition in a position to lay a foundation for the stability Morrison wants and that could provide the basis for electoral success. While many of the previous leadership targets and plotters have gone, including the protagonists of the past decade, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull, it should be remembered there are enough ingredients for a reliving of the dismal decade of instability.

Within the leadership group there is a cabinet minister, Peter Dutton, within a handful of votes of becoming leader a year ago; a Senate leader, Mathias Cormann, who has been unfairly humiliate­d; a deputy prime ­minister and Nationals’ leader, Michael McCormack, who has been subjected to criticism and could have faced a challenge before­ the election; and a treas­urer and deputy Liberal leader, Josh Frydenberg, who is new to the job and fought a duel with his old friend Greg Hunt for the deputy’s job. All of this would have provided fertile ground for leadership instability and division­ during the past 20 years yet now there is none.

For a start, as Home Affairs Minister, Dutton has provided rock-solid support for Morrison since the day Morrison defeated him in the leadership ballot; as Finance Minister, Cormann has been key to Senate legislative success and a continuing force in economic planning; McCormack is working closely with Morrison, who has his deputy’s welfare in mind; and Frydenberg is working closely with Morrison and Hunt, who has a new, far-reaching cabinet management role.

As well, Christian Porter, as Attorney-General and leader of the House of Representatives, is committed to the teamwork in question time and an aggressive political attack aimed at Labor.

What’s more, Morrison has worked to build relations with business leaders and prem­iers so he is seen as “doing things” and not obsessed with political games.

This week, he appeared with South Australian Liberal Premier Steven Marshall and Victorian Labor Premier Daniel Andrews announcing large joint infrastructure projects. Interestingly, the more politically positive and lively presentation was between­ Andrews and Morrison, who fell over each other to say how much they respected­ each other and how closely they were working together. Victoria was meant to be federal Labor’s pathway to victory­ in May yet Morrison is working as closely with Andrews as he is with Marshall and Tasmanian Liberal Premier Will Hodgman. Getting things done in the states — including pushing for the go-ahead of the Adani coal project in Queensland — is the key to the Coalition’s agenda on growth, infrastructure spending and job creation.

The greatest external risks to the Coalition are a weak economy, global threats to trade, slow wage rises, a lack of business investm­ent, high debt levels and sluggish jobs growth. Morrison is sticking to the successful budget and election mantra of a surplus, tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Refusing to be drawn on emotive issue­s — such as Labor’s demand that a Tamil family refused refugee statu­s be allowed to stay — Morrison reacted to lower than expected economic growth with the same message he has been delivering since the April budget. “The Australian economy grew by 1.4 per cent,” he said on Wednesday. “Through the year at 1.9 per cent in year average terms, which was only slightly below what we said it would be in the budget for 2018-19. The ­Australian economy is growing. It’s growing.

“In the last quarter, the UK economy went backwards. The German economy, the powerhouse of Europe, went backwards. Singapore went back­wards. Australia went forward …

“(The) numbers supported that view because it showed the Australian economy was growing and is growing and the plan we have in place is supporting that growth. A plan we put in the budget. The tough economic circumstances we face are no surprise to the Coalition. That’s why we framed the budget we did.”

In response to Labor’s calls to bring forward spending rather than stay committed to the surplus­, Morrison said: “The surplus is a key part of the government’s economic plan and it works together with our investment in skills, our investment in infrastructure, our investment in expanding our trade markets in innovation, in research. Our economic plan is ensuring that Australia can grow through these challenges,” he said, in a script unchanged since before the budget.

This is the Coalition’s weak spot. If the “resilient” Australian economy, as Frydenberg characterises the situation, doesn’t revive­, the ­government will be exposed­. Yet even here where Morrison, Frydenberg, Dutton, Cormann and Hunt all recognise the danger, there is no policy dissent­, and Labor conspires to hamper its own best chance.

On the day of the release of the weakest national accounts since the global financial crisis, opposition Treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers tried to create the conditions for a political attack on the Coalition over a soft economy and Anthony Albanese criticised Dutton and Morrison over the Tamil family’s deportation. ­Kristina Keneally made this an issue, pursuing all the old, failed Labor cultural agendas devoid­ of real policy.

Dutton has proved a brick for the government and has im­proved­ his margin in the Queensland seat of Dickson. The personal attacks on him are futile, proving Labor still hasn’t got the message. All of which lends further­ support to the view that Morrison is in the best leader’s seat for 30 years.