One small tweet… one giant upheaval in our relationship with China
Whatever its aim, China has handed Scott Morrison a rare gift and totally changed the domestic political equation for Anthony Albanese.
Questions will continue to be asked about China’s intent in releasing a doctored image of an Australian soldier in Afghanistan slitting the throat of a child from foreign ministry spokesman and “wolf warrior” Zhang Lijian; about the Prime Minister’s swift and unabashed demand for an apology; about the extent of support from our friends around the world; and about Labor’s strategic approach to Beijing.
But there is no doubt about the fallout this week, which has been dramatic, immediate and global. It has also become a new GPS reference point for how Sino-Australian relations will be seen as going north, optimistically with a subtle diplomatic reset, or going south, pessimistically with worsening relations and trade wars.
The hit on domestic politics was also immediate and far-reaching, giving Scott Morrison a new moral high ground and a test of nerve and statesmanship while the Opposition Leader’s mettle on national security, the ability to criticise the Morrison government and to control internal Labor tensions faced a searching test.
In the short term, Morrison’s defiant and almost instinctive reaction to an offensive, provocative and deliberate piece of propaganda has been well received by the Australian public and elicited important international support.
His response also allowed him to deal with the related issue of growing public concern about Australia’s Afghanistan veterans being blamed wholesale for the terrible wrongdoings of a few, demonstrate a ruthless authority over military leaders, and inject steel into the spine of ministerial conduct where it was most needed.
After weeks of growing public disquiet about how the military commanders were handling the results of the Brereton report into allegations of war crimes in Afghanistan and potentially letting those soldiers on the ground, including the thousands not facing any allegations of wrongdoing, take the blame, Morrison was able to use the Chinese weaponisation of the allegations to steer the defence commanders away from stripping all meritorious citations from service personnel.
At the same time he was able to reiterate the transparency of Australia on human rights and the commitment to a presumption of innocence, where ministerial leadership had been missing.
There are still legitimate questions as to whether Morrison “took a bait” from China, acted too emotionally, made demands he knew would not be met and encouraged a nationalism that can be counterproductive.
Albanese’s response to the tweet and Morrison’s actions was less distinct, was uneven and involved errors of timing and tone. Ironically, the offensive, old-school propaganda from China changed the domestic political perspective and made it impossible for Albanese to adopt a critical position on Morrison’s actions or proposed legislation, such as the foreign relations bill, which were aimed at reducing China’s influence in Australia and the region.
Everything to do with China — trade, security, investment and diplomatic dialogue — had become contaminated by the vile tweet, and it unified Australian public sentiment in an instant.
Indeed, despite divisions within the ALP over the foreign relations bill, which will allow the federal government to disavow state government deals with foreign nations — such as Daniel Andrews’ Victorian agreement on the Belt and Road infrastructure — Albanese could not afford to be seen standing in its way. Yet this legislation, which will now pass finally next week, was one of the so-called 14 grievances Beijing said it had with Australia.
That tweet from China expressly ensured the passage of a bill which Labor had sought to amend and some wanted blocked.
The passage of this legislation, which will anger universities trying to regain lost Chinese students, is a graphic example of how official but fake claims from Beijing have altered the public sentiment and political reality in Australia.
The response of Australia’s allies — including New Zealand, which showed commendable courage given its similar risk to Chinese trade retaliation — importantly went further than the expected support from the outgoing Trump administration to significantly include the incoming Biden administration.
Again, Labor’s previous domestic political criticism accusing Morrison of being a partisan Trump supporter and puppet — the same deputy sheriff image China uses to discredit Australian leaders — was brought as unstuck as Albanese’s call for Morrison to contact Trump personally and get him to concede.
Whatever China’s intentions were, they can’t have been to enhance Morrison’s public support, strengthen his leadership, get early endorsement from the Biden administration, enhance the argument for a quadrilateral security agreement with the US, Japan, India and Australia, and effectively silence critics and opposition to Coalition proposals to limit China’s influence and investment.
The government is convinced some of China’s aims were to use the shocking findings of the Brereton report to humiliate Australia, undermine our world standing on human rights, repay us for criticism of human rights abuses in China, bully Australia as an example to smaller regional nations and portray Australia as an imperialist force. There is also the conviction within the government, in keeping with Morrison’s long-stated public position that while China is watching and listening to Australia, it is not understanding or hearing the Australian position — which is to stand firm on values and rights, keep rhetoric limited, be ready to communicate, and continue the diplomatic and trade relationship within agreed global limits.
In reaction to the overreach from Beijing, Morrison, clearly of the view that this was the bottom of the barrel, publicly declared it was “an opportunity” to reset discussions. He is intent on being patient, not using inflammatory rhetoric, standing up when unfairly threatened and constantly leaving the way open for dialogue. He’s also directing reassurance and support to the Australian Chinese community.
As Morrison said on Thursday: “Australia remains committed to constructive and open and regular dialogue at leader and ministerial level to address the tensions that are clearly there in the relationship.
“It’s in our interest to do that. It’s in the Chinese government’s interest to do that. We remain open to do that. We will be patient. We will continue to be clear. Our national interests have been clearly articulated and the Australian government’s position on those are well understood.”
Australia’s position has not changed in this regard for decades. What has changed — since John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who signed the historic trade deal with China, were able to speak to their counterparts, including President Xi Jinping — is that the trade balance has swung dramatically, and that Xi has changed China.
Albanese’s initial response to the fake offensive tweet was perfect, the tone was right, the content was on song and the intent was clear. Labor backed Morrison’s action and would not ask questions on the issue in parliament.
But then the complexity of the situation overwhelmed Albanese, just as the tweet overwhelmed all discussion about China. Just as Labor has tried to maintain a legitimate position about the state of the economy before the pandemic recession, Albanese and Penny Wong have been arguing that Morrison has put Australia in a worse position than it needs to be with China.
Labor argues Morrison was too close to the US under Trump, didn’t diplomatically prepare the ground for economic arguments over China’s status as a developed nation or the investigation into the origin of COVID-19, and has not sought to diversify our markets.
Albanese on Thursday and Friday said the Coalition was “proud” of its free trade agreement with China but that “what we are seeing is certainly not free trade with China” and that the threats to our coal, wine and barley trade would cost Australian jobs.
But on Wednesday, Albanese’s demand for Morrison to “work on the relationship with China” and effectively pick up the phone to Xi was wrong in timing and tone.
When challenged on what Labor would do differently, which of the 14 grievances Labor would accede to, or how picking up a phone to your counterpart helps if they don’t answer the phone, there is the sound of caged crickets in an Asian garden, a nervous, barely audible grating.
Like Hamlet’s mother’s remarriage while the sheets of the matrimonial bed were still crumpled from the presence of his dead father, Albanese’s attack was too soon, too raw. It was conflated with Beijing’s propaganda and breached national unity.
As Albanese fruitlessly argued that he wasn’t attacking Morrison, just as he unsuccessfully argued he had never told Morrison to pick up the phone and talk to Trump, Morrison was able to express his “disappointment” that the Labor leader had split on a matter of national security.
After this week, China may decide to take the relationship further south with calculated insults and escalating tariffs.
But if it does, the tweet at the beginning of this week has galvanised public opinion, enhanced Morrison’s authority, and made it even harder for Albanese to digress from the Coalition position on China.
One fake image on Twitter has changed the dynamic of the relations between Australia and China, drawn the incoming Biden administration to Scott Morrison, even before the new US president is sworn in, and totally changed the domestic political equation for Anthony Albanese and Labor.