Libs lost in wishful thinking in wake of ‘if only’ election

In media circles, it might be time to reassess whether efforts to guide the Liberals are actually ­hindering them instead.

Matthew Guy, with wife Renae, addresses supporters after his electoral defeat to Daniel Andrews last Saturday. Picture: David Caird

“We need to position ourselves to appeal to a wider range of voters and not just somewhere between the Australia Club and Sky After Dark.” This was just some of the commentary from respected Liberal campaign strategist Tony Barry on the ABC on Saturday night.

On election night, though, it was unlikely much of the Liberal base were watching the ABC. Many would have been tuned into Sky News.

That night, at Sky After Dark, the mood was fractious. Half an hour after counting began, it became clear that despite the swing against Labor in the west of Melbourne, the lost votes had gone to others and the big loser of the night was the state Liberal Party. The electorate had emphatically rejected brand Liberal. Again.

Labor panellists kept their delight in check but an air of devastation settled over others, and shoulders slumped. One sank into the chair, turning green around the gills.

How had it come to this? All the effort, all the wishing and wanting, the hours on air dishing out advice, the editorialising, the tweeting, it had all came to naught. Conservatism’s biggest, scariest bogeyman, Daniel Andrews, had not been vanquished. Victorians ignored all the hectoring and quietly voted as they pleased.

A panellist quipped that if the tide was out on Andrews, then it was only out to the left. Not such a surprise, surely, considering the Liberals gave preferences to the Greens?

At 8.17pm, Sky called a Labor win. Then heated arguments and bitter recriminations began. And they have not stopped since.

Did anyone mention the lockdowns? Picture: Jake Nowakowski

If only. If only the Victorian Liberals were more conservative, less gutless and not Labor-lite. If only they would loudly denounce climate change as complete rubbish, fight more on the culture wars, stop being so timid and limp, go much harder to the right, and kick out all of the dreadful leftists.

If only true Liberals would stand up for what they believed in, conservative values, and not been useless LINOs – Liberals in name only.

If only the people running the campaign had listened to the TV hosts who thundered instructions to camera, and rang them later to tell them how to win the election. If only they came on Sky After Dark more, and argued their positions.

If only the hordes of people who absolutely can’t stand Andrews actually lived in Victoria and therefore could have voted against him.

If only the Victorian voters identified on election night as “lower middle class” – who were, after all, the “forgotten” people – realised that they were lower ­middle class and remembered to vote Liberal.

And above all, if only people remembered the lockdowns. Did anyone mention the lockdowns? Didn’t Victorian voters realise there had been lockdowns – world-beating lockdowns, from the lockdown capital of the country, the planet, the universe?

One panellist pointed out that Victorians had told him before the election they didn’t want to hear about the bloody lockdowns anymore. Yet the Liberal Party featured the issue in its campaign, with a bizarre advertisement linking the party to anti-vaxxers and freedom protesters. It was an astonishing error of judgment, but only one of many.

The lockdown issue at this election for the Liberals has been like the “African gangs” issue of the last election. Yet again they failed to read the room.

Many media types, too, underestimated the public support for Labor’s pandemic management, mistakes and all, and the desire of people to focus on the future. It is said a lot in political circles that where Victoria goes, so does the nation. Hence the concern about the next state election in NSW.

In media circles, it might be time to reassess whether efforts to guide the Liberals are actually ­hindering them instead. Perhaps sections of the electorate now ­conflate the party with sections of the media, which they regard as toxic, and perhaps they are voting to reject both this type of media as well as the party they think it represents.

As for the Liberals, we all understand the brand is out of favour. Put aside bad decisions, and poor conduct, and just consider the demographics at play. We are living through the demise of the asset-owning boomers, and the rise of the renting millennials. Culturally, we are undergoing massive change. A rejection of “conservative values” and organised religion.

Consider past voters who have abandoned the party now. The educated, the young, women, particularly professional women, people in the cities, multicultural communities, particularly the ­Chinese, business owners … the list goes on.

The demographic and structural challenges are real, and they must be addressed. Yet the wishful thinking goes on. And the wishes pile up.

If only the hordes of socially conservative forgotten people who live in the outer suburbs could be found, their votes could be captured to replace the ones lost.

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.