Political myopia: why the Liberals still don’t get it

Those taking comfort in the belief that the base will drift back because the teals will crash and burn should think more deeply.

Volunteers wearing Josh Frydenberg billboards walk past the headquarters of teal independent Monique Ryan during the 2022 election campaign. Aaron Francis / Herald Sun

Good laughs are few and far between these days, so it was fun to read a news report this week on the latest Liberal Party musings. There is, apparently, the desire to cobble together a cunning plan, for execution in the fullness of time, at the appropriate juncture – even in five years or so – to return the former federal treasurer to the political stage.

Josh Frydenberg might miss politics and the party might miss him, or more specifically, the substantial buckets of money that used to pour in from his electorate, but Victorian voters do not miss the ex-treasurer. Not enough of them to count, anyway.

Unfortunately for him, Frydenberg did his dash with locals a long time ago. Such is the feeling here, that to the extent that it is even possible – and it probably isn’t – any path back to public favour will be long and gruelling. During a debate held in the election campaign, Frydenberg was skewered by his main opponent. Former brain physician now member of parliament Dr Monique Ryan at one point, called him the Treasurer for NSW.

This sparked a furious response, and protestations of high offence, giving proof to the phrase that the truth hurts. Ryan had hit a nerve. It might sound strange to those interstate, but a lot of Victorians found validation in that one little moment.

Throughout the debate, Ryan referred to Frydenberg consistently as “Mr Frydenberg”. Frydenberg, though, kept referring to Ryan as “Monique”. Ryan could have said, it is Dr Ryan to you, sir, but she didn’t.

Never interrupt an opponent when they are making a mistake – especially when that mistake

reinforces existing stereotypes.

Josh Frydenberg and prospective future member for Kooyong Monique Ryan at the televised debate at Hawthorn Town Hall in May. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Andrew Henshaw

Without doubt, Frydenberg and his party have some serious soul-searching to do, and all the time in the world to do it.

Years back, professional, educated and accomplished women who started to move away from the Liberals were derided as doctors’ wives. It has become evident that many of these voters are not doctors’ wives, but doctors themselves.

This fact was pointed out recently at a political briefing held by the good folks of Redbridge, a bipartisan consultancy specialising in polling to move numbers through the identification, persuasion and mobilisation of target audiences.

Redbridge say the “Teal Bath” the Liberals dissolved in was climate-critical, but also symbolic of a deeper values disconnect with Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party.

The firm’s research shows that a perceived lack of leadership during Covid was at the heart of this.

Also, analysis revealed that “middle Australia” is increasingly “socially progressive and economically anxious”. Frydenberg represented a regime that was seen to be lacking in discipline on the economy, and oversaw significant waste and a blowout of the finances. Meanwhile, silly culture wars were waged.

Since the election disaster, some party figures have demonstrated a failure to listen and learn. There is a lack of awareness, lack of insight, and unwillingness to confront hard truths and admit mistakes.

The concerns and desires of the electorate are often condescendingly diminished; for example, in the days after the election, the ex-PM explained away his loss by saying that sometimes people just want to change the curtains.

Then this week, a senior Liberal, unnamed, was quoted in the news item about the desired return of Frydenberg, sneering at the very people the party needs to win back if they ever want to be in power again. Everyone in Hawthorn (a suburb of Melbourne), according to the operative, is running around in sandals and eating tofu. This means, apparently, that the electoral seat is gone.

To follow the logic, once a voter wears sandals and eats tofu they are lost to the Liberals forever.

This kind of press does enormous damage to the Liberal brand. It portrays an undergraduate mindset, non-existent emotional IQ, and a toxic culture.

The electorate is increasingly educated, sophisticated, and looking for nuanced and intelligent discussion. Unprofessional language turns them off.

Those taking comfort in the belief that the base will drift back because the “Teals” will crash and burn should think more deeply. Redbridge says the Albanese government is incentivised to give them some policy wins to wedge the Liberals in the longer term. After all, it is in Labor’s interest to see them re-elected and curtail the Teal threat to their own electorates.

Plus, the Teal movement is sophisticated and has a clear understanding of its voter: socially progressive, economically centrist, and skewing female, younger and educated.

The prediction is that these new MPs will seek to position themselves as the “sensible centre” with an eye for national “best interest”. They will branch into issues such as housing affordability, superannuation, higher education and healthcare. Their sensitivity to the voters “back home” means they are unlikely to support tax reforms that impact higher income earners.

So where to next for the Liberals, who have lost both their base and Frydenberg, one of their greatest fundraisers? Like fishermen without a catch, the net is being desperately cast about in the dying light of the day. As it comes up empty, some lash out in anger at the fish who evaded them. Others fantasise about the day the big catch will return.

It doesn’t look as though the party hierarchy is coping well. Perhaps those most unaccustomed to loss find it the most difficult to process.