Hawaii and bushfires fade as halo effect shines on Scott Morrison

The PM’s political domin­ance is such that it’s hard to conjure up circumstances that would see him lose the next election.

Illustration: Tom Jellett

Scott Morrison’s political domin­ance is such that it’s hard to conjure up circumstances that would see him lose the next election. Morrison may have been the underdog at the last election, but he’s the firm favourite at the next. Every advantage is his. Prime ministers choose the timing of federal elections, which only adds to his chances of winning, by picking the exact moment in the electoral cycle to force Labor to the polls.

The summer of 2019-20 feels like a lifetime ago now. Morrison was under pressure, having returne­d from Hawaii, caught out for trying to secretly holiday while Australia burned. On his return he struck all the wrong chords when confronted about his failure.

The Morrison of today doesn’t make those mistakes. The ups and downs of managing the pandemic have hardened him politically, but softened him in the eyes of many Australians.

The PM’s critics sometimes find that hard to accept, because all they see is the rat cunning, which to be sure is still there. There is a hint of the left’s response­ to Howard in the way Morrison’s critics spitefully hiss at him. It can leave swinging voters who aren’t enamoured with Morrison­ defending him against the worst of insults they feel are over-the-top, just as swinging ­voters did with Howard.

Australians are appreciative for where the country is at versus how other nations are struggling through COVID, and they largely give Morrison the credit for that.

Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party aren’t that many seats short of the elusive majority, but the issues aren’t running their way. Not even close. In the post-pandemic world, incumbency advantag­e is high, as long as those in power haven’t mishandled the virus. Donald Trump is the example of what happens to a leader when they do mismanage something so important.

The ups and downs of managing the pandemic have hardened Scott Morrison politically, but softened him in the eyes of many Australians.

The Coalition government certainly hasn’t failed when it comes to COVID-19, and even the few pockets of failure along the way have been glazed over in the name of applauding the wider successes Australia has enjoyed. Because it has been a global pandemic, ­comparisons with other nations are easy. Whether it’s minimising the health impacts or evading the worst of the economic downturn, compared with neighbours near and far, Australia looks pretty good.

Morrison — the master of shifting blame or absolving himself of responsibility — has been able to do exactly that each time question marks have arise about mismanagement. We almost waited too long before shutting the border to the US. The disembark­ation of the Ruby Princess was found to be a failure of the NSW Health Department. The problems in the aged-care sector in Victoria only grew because of the second wave, which became the state Labor gov­ernment’s responsibility, courtesy of its mishandling of hotel quarantining and poor contact tracing procedures.

There is little doubt aged-care problems are the closest Morrison has been to coming unstuck in this pandemic. Even then, if the problem had grown out of control, he could have cut the minister, Richard Colbeck, loose — just as he did with Bridget McKenzie when the sports rorts scandal was gaining traction.

Federal Labor is talking of “the Morrison-Frydenberg recession”, but nobody is seriously­ buying into that. Not when the recession is global in scale. To the extent that the surplu­s target was both unnecessary and perhaps even unachievable in the wake of the bushfires, COVID-19 almost instantly insul­ated the Coalition from criticism, including for its “back in black” gloating before it had even been delivered.

Labor would have been pilloried for the size and breadth of spending on schemes such as JobKeeper and JobSeeker had it delivered­ them. The conservative side of politics being so bold, in contrast, was applauded. Even the decision to wind back the payments­, while difficult for some, can be seen through the prism of encouraging people back into work and attempting a return to normality.

The bushfires saw an alarmingly quick decline in Morrison’s personal support, however, those days are over. Just like state leaders right around the country, including­ Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, the PM’s personal numbers are significantly higher than the Opposition Leader he squares off against, and his satisfaction rating is sky-high.

Criticisms of potential lost ­opportunities when it comes to reform­ in the aftermath of a crisis, while valid, will not resonate among mainstream voters. This is Morrison’s heartland, and he is savvy enough to know how to feed it red meat when he needs to. A hint of nationalism when rebuffing British PM Boris Johnson for having the temerity to suggest Australia needs to adopt zero emissions targets. A sprinkle of hope that a further lowering of taxes to help with the cost of living is just over the horizon.

The PM also knows how to instil­ fear into these voters. Don’t risk a return to Labor, he says, lest it makes a bad situation worse. This is followed up by a positive message: trust the Coalition to steer the country the rest of the way out of this pandemic. Let us finish what we started.

Labor knows it is facing an uphill­ task to be competitive at the next election, much less win it. Alread­y we are seeing signs of turf wars over unity and individual survivalism over collective hope of victory. Albanese will battle this all the way up until polling day.

Team Morrison is also well served by its campaign unit. At last year’s election, new Liberal Party federal director Andrew Hirst may have been the difference ­between victory and defeat, with his deployment of ground-game tactics and a cut-through advertising campaign targeting Bill Shorten. He is already planning his line of attack for Albanese, not to mention alternative leaders in Labor’s caucus should change happen on the eve of the election.

The one-time novice director will go into the next campaign more seasoned but still hungry for further success. Unlike in years past, the Coalition is now every bit as good as Labor at online campaigning and fundraising.

Context is everything when it comes to the next election, and the Coalition will fight that campaign having successfully steered Austra­lia through the COVID recession­ and out the other side of the pandemic. Labor could have benefited from a similar halo effect­ at the 2010 election, having survived the global financial crisis, had it not been for the fact that it removed the leader who did that just months before polling day.

There is no chance of Morrison suffering the same fate.

Peter van Onselen is the political editor at the Ten Network and a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.