Forget the past, this poll could be lost on distrust

PM beware: despite many good economic fundamentals, consumers are pessimistic and the electorate is cantankerous.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese in a heated argument during Question Time in the House of Representatives in Parliament House Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

So we are soon off and running for the election, how exciting.

Do you remember back in August 2004, when John Howard called a federal election and made it all about one thing? “This election, ladies and gentlemen, will be about trust,” he said.

Scott Morrison must be tempted to do the same, and ask us who we trust, now. In 2004, Morrison was the NSW Liberal Party state director, so he knows how to campaign around this issue.

Morrison has floated the “who do you trust” theme in the past, but must tread more carefully, now. If the Australian people are asked this question, the answer won’t be to the Prime Minister’s liking.

The folks at Roy Morgan Research have made an art form of studying who the Australian people trust, who they distrust, and why. In the past two years, researchers have interviewed about 21,000 Australians on the topic.

Morgan chief executive Michelle Levine says distrust must be measured, as well as trust, because while trust is the foundation of all human connections, measuring it alone only shows part of the picture.

For example, many politicians are trusted by a high proportion of Australians but are distrusted by an even larger group, who then vote for the other team.

The emotion of distrust can be a more powerful driver than trust, because distrust is where our deepest fears, pain and feelings of betrayal lie. Distrust is about doubt, suspicion, anxiety, fear and self-protection.

When we choose the person to run the country, what drives our choice is not just who we like and trust the most, but also who we loathe and distrust the most.

We don’t always vote in a heady mood of hope and optimism. We can vote in a mood of resentful rumination.

Perhaps over the past few years we feel we have been hurt, let down, lied to and left feeling abandoned by our government. We can exact our revenge for all that, and in the absence of anger, we can just pick the ones we think will do the least damage.

The last Morgan report, in March, found that Australia’s most distrusted organisation was our federal government. The next distrusted outfit was Centrelink. The Liberal Party also ranked high in the distrust field.

In the report, 1426 Australian adults were also asked to nominate – unprompted with no list shown – the political leaders that they trust, and those they distrust, and the reasons. When subtracting the level of distrust from the level of trust, a Net Trust Score was produced.

The Australian politician most frequently associated with distrust, and with the highest net distrust score, is Scott Morrison – Clive Palmer actually topped the list, but is not a serving politician.

In second place is Peter Dutton, followed by, in order of distrust, Barnaby Joyce, Pauline Hanson, Craig Kelly, Dominic Perrottet, Angus Taylor, Michaelia Cash, Josh Frydenberg and Matthew Guy.

When asked why they distrust Morrison, typical responses are “He spreads disinformation, he never takes responsibility, he disappears whenever there is a crisis” and “Clearly does not always tell the truth and does not always have interests of the country first”.

The sitting politician respondents most frequently associate with trust is Anthony Albanese.

The serving politicians with the highest net trust score, in order, are Penny Wong, Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt.

Albanese has improved his Net Trust Score from eighth position in March 2020 to second place by March 2022. Looking solely at trust, the Opposition Leader is currently the most trusted politician in Australia.

When asked why they trust Albanese, typical responses are “He is genuinely guided by principles that have the common good in mind”, “Understands climate change and in times of crisis could be counted on to do what is right by the nation” and “Speaks honestly and clearly without waffle”.

If the Coalition wants to turn things around, the answer lies in the trust data, for their brand generally.

Those who trust the Coalition say things like “Strong leadership over last two years, both economically and with pandemic”, “Better understanding of fiscal responsibility” and “They have proven their worth in good financial management”.

Those who distrust the ALP say things like “Too much focus on single issues and they seem to think there is an endless pot of money to spend on ridiculous ideas”, “They put profits of companies before people and our climate”, and “Lack of honesty and integrity”.

Levine insists that this election will not be won on trust, but will be lost on distrust. The past few years have been extraordinarily hard on us all, and so despite many good economic fundamentals, consumers are pessimistic and the electorate is cantankerous.

Levine says distrust has to be identified and addressed before trust can be built. It takes a lot of courage to humbly admit mistakes, offer genuine remorse, and to credibly and believably promise to do better. Time is running out.