Focus on the next steps to lock in exit from lockdowns

The citizens of NSW need to consider the worst-case scenario, which, unfortunately, looks more likely by the day.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian attends a news conference to announce the state’s worst day so far in the Delta outbreak on Friday. Picture: Getty

Congratulations to those in Queensland – Brisbane’s winning bid for the Olympics gave 14 million locked down Australians a bright moment in an otherwise dismal week.

Half the country is currently subject to stay-at-home orders.

This is costing, according to the federal Treasurer, about $300m a day. There are rising numbers of critically ill people in hospital. Tragically, some have already died, and there are more deaths to come.

Public anxiety is at a high, and the uncertainty can be crippling. All anyone in lockdown wants to know is when their lockdown will end. Unfortunately, this is focusing on the reward, rather than on the work we need to do to earn it.

As it stands, Victoria and South Australia may run their current outbreaks to the ground, but nothing is guaranteed.

NSW though, is in dire straits. The implications of this for us all are profound.

To begin with, the citizens of NSW need to consider the worst-case scenario, which, unfortunately, looks more likely by the day.

The lockdown, which has not worked since day one, continues on current trajectory and keeps on not working.

Specifically, it does not bring the numbers down, to the extent that lockdowns can be lifted. The virus continues to grow and spread to the regions, albeit more slowly that it would have had no lockdown been implemented.

The lockdown continues until authorities determine that a sufficient number of people are vaccinated for it to be lifted.

Some modelling shows that could take until the end of the year, or longer. During this period, depending on health system capacity, the lockdown may even have to be tightened.

For all this time, NSW remains in isolation. All other states keep their hard borders closed against the state. Unfortunately, Canberra is caught up in this scenario too, by their geography.

To illustrate the reluctance of other states to go down with the ship, even the leader of the Victorian Liberal Party castigated the Andrews government this week for not closing the border to NSW quickly enough.

This was a stunning U-turn on all of his previous statements railing against lockdowns and border closures. Now, Michael O’Brien says “allowing the border to stay open with NSW as long as it did exposed Victoria to greater risk” and state Labor should have “acted sooner to lock down the border and protect Victoria”.

At this point, no one wants the people of NSW to lose hope.

The worst-case scenario, described above, doesn’t have to be the future.

First, the way the public is being spoken to needs to change.

At the daily press conferences, Gladys Berejiklian should do as the Victorian Premier has always done and stay until every question is answered. This is not grandstanding, it simply removes the need for reporters to jostle and shout their questions over each other, which creates a chaos that benefits no one. If the press pack knows that all questions will be answered, no matter how long it takes, then an orderly exchange of information can ensue.

Second, NSW MPs need to lock in behind the Premier and focus on what is really important. Earlier this week, in the pages of this newspaper, one MP was quoted as believing that NSW was in a race against Victoria to exit from lockdown.

“When Victoria’s numbers come down and they start moving around again, people in Sydney are going to be furious,” he said, adding: “It will give people a reason to start questioning the NSW government’s competence.”

This is no way to be viewing the current situation. NSW is not in a race with Victoria; it is in a war with the virus.

Third, the community needs to unite and get behind the vaccination program. Media organisations need to exercise editorial oversight and shut down the anti-vaccine message coming from key shock jocks. According to the Health Minister there is “plenty of AZ around but too many reluctant to have it”, and as doctors report this feeling is strongest in the over-60 cohort it is not too hard to work out where some get their information.

Fourth, the public should be provided with a written plan setting out the lockdown exit. Daniel Andrews did this for Victoria, and it was a game changer for the state. I remember it as the key moment where certainty emerged.

Fifth, the plan should incorporate a harder lockdown.

To justify this position, calculate the rolling five-day average of those out in the community while infectious. From the day this lockdown commenced, this number has steadily risen while the people have been fed a daily diet of false assurances.

Sixth, the Premier should stop talking about “green shoots”. As an old friend of mine says: Da Nile, darling, is a river in Egypt.