Even Liberals in a mess are doing better than Labor

It is perverse that so much can be going wrong for the government yet it is the opposition that has the most to lose from this sitting fortnight.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison responds to Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese during Question Time. The upcoming parliamentary sitting is set to be bruising for both sides. Picture: Getty

The sitting fortnight ahead will be a difficult one for the government. Scott Morrison will be without the services of his Leader of the House, Christian Porter, who is also the Attorney-General and Industrial Relations Minister. This means the Coalition will be playing catch-up when it comes to parliamentary tactics. It also means that one of the few policy scripts the government appears to be willing to fight for — IR reform — is likely to stall.

Defence Minister Linda Reynolds will also be absent this week and next. Both are off on medical leave. Her absence during Senate estimates hearings will be met with plenty of scepticism. Just wait for the theatre. While both ministers won’t be present (there is a chance Porter may return for the second sitting week) their political shadows will certainly loom large: Reynolds for the way she handled rape allegations in her ministerial office, including reports she called the alleged victim, Brittany Higgins, a “lying cow”, while Porter continues to be in the spotlight for an historical sexual assault allegation that was reported on the ABC, albeit without the allegation even being put to him first.

We certainly live in strange times.

Throw in that Health Minister Greg Hunt will be hobbling around the corridors of power, having only just recovered from a bacterial infection in his leg. “Not related to the vaccine” seemed to be the first response from anyone and everyone in government when asked what happened to him, desperate not to give the anti-vaxxers any oxygen. That note even bobbed up in the daily talking points for Coalition MPs.

While Labor will zero in on the government’s myriad problems in question time and estimates, in a further twist to federal politics right now, Anthony Albanese is the leader under the most pressure, not Scott Morrison.

Yes, Morrison could and should have handled all of the above better than he has. To put it bluntly, he’s been out of his depth, seemingly determined to highlight differences between how he leads and how John Howard approached leadership. But Labor MPs will be watching Albanese very closely during the sitting fortnight ahead, mindful that if he can’t take paint off the government and the PM in these circumstances, what chance does he have in an election campaign?

So far Labor MPs haven’t been impressed with the lack of cut-through during opposition question time performances. “I don’t know where the bar exactly is set,” one Labor frontbencher says. “But he’s got to jump over it and stick his landing. Albo’s greatest strength right now is that those who want to replace him can’t settle on a candidate, and there are no guarantees any one of them would do better.”

A nicely worded quote for someone who sees themselves as a leadership option. The joys of anonymity’ there has been fair bit of that lately in Australian politics.

But the closer we get to the next election the risk grows that opposition MPs panic and make a move against Albo.

It is a perverse situation that so much can be going wrong for the government yet it is the opposition that has the most to lose from this sitting fortnight. It goes into it as the favourite and needs to come out the other side seen as the winner.

Which is not to suggest that Coalition MPs aren’t concerned with how they are travelling. They are. So is the PM and so is the cabinet. One minister noted that Morrison looks panicked in private, which isn’t something they have seen before: “Other than at the start of the fires.”

But he has time on his side. No one is challenging Morrison, no one is lining him up. His heir apparent is obvious, Josh Frydenberg, but the Treasurer isn’t counting numbers, not even close. The PM chooses the timing of the next election and remains in front in the polls. His federal director, Andrew Hirst, is the best in the business, having masterminded the come-from-behind campaign in 2019.

Not that polls worry Morrison anyway — he only won one poll in the previous term, the one that mattered. Election Day. If Team Morrison has anything to worry about, it is that it lacks a clear narrative for re-election beyond appearing a safer option than the alternative. It has a penchant for winning elections but little ideological motivation for staying in power beyond retaining patronage and keeping Labor away from the Treasury benches.

It’s not the best pitch for a fourth term in office I have ever heard.

At one level Morrison’s is an old-fashioned conservative ethos, made more potent by the fact the last election saw Labor advocating for controversial reforms. Labor’s failure to get an ambitious policy agenda across the line at the 2019 election threatens to usher in another era of policy timidity.

Of course, there’s much more to policy innovation than mere electoral politics. Only parts of the Hawke-Keating agenda of the 1980s were put to the electoral test. We shouldn’t expect political leaders to show courage — to use a term currently in fashion — when the electorate and the media reward a more conservative approach.

There is something to be said, though, for relying on the political advantages of incumbency and the extensive machinery of government to conjure the combination of policy ideas, political support and skill at implementation, which is essential to sustain political change. This gives political leaders greater control of policy debate in a media environment that rewards short-termism.

While hardly an example to inspire young political activists, the last Labor federal government did progress modest proposals on broadband and disability insurance.

On the other hand, when it came to carbon emissions trading, a bolder policy from the opposition couldn’t be sustained in government. Yet Labor in opposition doesn’t look particularly energised on any of these fronts.

Morrison in many respects embodies the limitations of contemporary Australian politics: spin as a first instinct, little policy imagination, and a risk-averse approach, even after a solid election win. Yet, along with the states, the federal government showed a good deal of policy flexibility when faced with the COVID-19 crisis.

Which adds up to tough political times ahead for Labor, notwithstanding the quagmire the government appears to currently be in.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.