Donald Trump’s tariffs may be Anthony Albanese’s Tampa crisis
Two weeks can be an eternity in politics but Peter Dutton’s dream of forming a government is surely over now.
The Easter and Anzac Day holiday breaks and Tuesday’s pre-poll kick-off make that more certain. Only a dramatic unforeseen event could change his fortunes.
For many months before the calling of the election, the Coalition continued to be backed heavily by the betting agencies. It was the favourite with the bookies for a long time.
In the last Newspoll before US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, the Opposition Leader led 39-31 on the primary vote and was ahead 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis.
So, what changed?
For a start, Anthony Albanese’s election timing was spot-on. The irony is, Cyclone Alfred upset the Prime Minister’s plans but also gave him early momentum. When responded to well, natural disasters provide an opportunity to help people in need and to look prime ministerial. Albanese did both, and he did them well.
Then came Trump’s tariffs. The tariff announcement was for Albanese what the 2001 MV Tampa asylum-seeker stand-off was for John Howard. Howard was struggling in the first half of that year but three months out from the 2001 election the Tampa crisis – and Labor’s responses to it – dramatically changed the electoral fortunes of the major parties. The images of our special forces soldiers forcibly boarding the accidental rescue ship seared the drama into the minds of voters.
Howard capitalised further on the drama by rushing amendments to Australia’s migration laws into the parliament, hoping no doubt the Labor opposition would oppose them. His wish came true. Oh dear, I remember that well!
Now Labor is working hard to capitalise on Trump’s policies by taking every opportunity to link Dutton to the methods of the great disrupter. And on this front Labor has had a bit of help from enemy forces.
While Trump’s behaviour started the rot, it also forced Coalition errors including obviously rushed policy announcements. These added to earlier unforced errors. The Coalition campaign has been underwhelming, to put it most politely.
Like the first debate, nothing emerged in the leaders’ clash this week that will dramatically shift the political dial. I suspect few in the Coalition camp are feeling confident that something big will change the campaign dynamic between now and polling day.
I further suspect Coalition strategists will be discussing the merits of adjusting their aspirations. That is, giving up on their hope of winning more seats than Labor, to focus on dragging Labor below 76 seats – the number Labor needs to form a government in its own right. That is, without relying on the support of minor parties or independent MPs.
That would of course involve a reallocation of money and resources to the four or five most vulnerable Labor electorates. Dutton may find this option appealing.
Sure, the thing his Liberal Party colleagues will focus on most post-election is the seat count. But, for a one-term opposition, a Labor minority would be a good result.
Further, the early period of a hung parliament is no time to be changing leadership jockeys. Dutton would be given another chance, surely made more likely by a hesitancy among other aspirants who may not think it’s a good time to successfully further their own ambitions.
In any case, when judging Dutton’s campaign performance, the more fair-minded among his colleagues will acknowledge Labor’s strong campaign performance. It has been better on every key measure.
Labor’s policy offerings were designed better and sold better. Its campaigning has been superior, and Albanese’s performance has been impressive and close to mistake free. The Labor frontbench team also has been better and more effective. Along with the Trump effect, all these things made Dutton’s task a tough one and that surely will be acknowledged.
In 2001, I was part of Labor’s frontbench team. Like all shadow ministers I had plans to travel to electorates right around the country to campaign with our MPs and candidates. Those travel plans came to an abrupt end early in the campaign when I took a call from a senior Labor campaign official who instructed me to cancel all of my travel and to stay at home to defend my own turf. It was the type of message no sitting member wants to hear.
Strategy can and does change during an election campaign when it must. Trump’s tariffs have already forced one Coalition strategy change and it is not too late to pivot again.
In a hung parliament, opposition MPs know that every parliamentary sitting day presents an opportunity to become the government.
Two weeks is a long time in politics and in this case it may be just enough for Dutton to achieve the next best thing to an election win.
Joel Fitzgibbon was Labor member for the NSW seat of Hunter, 1996-2022, and the defence minister, 2007-09.
More Coverage
Political tensions erupt in ugly clash of fire and ICE
Heightened attention on a week of protests in LA has worked in Donald Trump’s favour – so far.
‘Gangs’ didn’t steal Palestine, merchants purchased it
How best to undermine Israel’s legitimacy as a country? Simple; argue it came into existence through ‘the theft of Palestine’. The truth is Israel emerged more peaceably than any other nation.