Comeback kid: Don’t write off a Donald Trump resurgence just yet
The former president doesn’t conform to any political script, written off ahead of 2016 Republican primaries he went on to dominate. Not to mention the general election he won that year.
While the Republican red wave didn’t eventuate during this week’s US midterm elections – largely because of failures by Trump acolytes – reports suggesting the GOP’s underperformance will kill off Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential tilt are, to misquote Mark Twain, greatly exaggerated.
That’s because Trump doesn’t conform neatly to any political script. Don’t forget, Trump was written off ahead of the 2016 Republican primaries he went on to dominate. He certainly was written off at the general election he won that year.
On election night, anticipating that she’d broken the highest glass ceiling in US politics and would be the first female president, Hillary Clinton held her afterparty under a real glass ceiling – a symbolic gesture, though not the one intended.
Trump thrives on being the underdog in the eyes of established party leaders, as does his Republican base. It wasn’t Trump personally who failed in these midterms. The failure of his supporters simply highlights – in Trump’s mind at least – that they aren’t him. They aren’t capable of getting out the vote in a way he might, in the states that would deliver a Republican presidency again.
To be clear, I’m far from certain Trump can win at a general election. But primary showdowns are a different beast. He only has to win over more Republicans than his rivals.
One-time Trump supporters have started to consign the former president to the dust bin of history courtesy of the GOP’s underwhelming performance this week. Many have galvanised around re-elected Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who won 60 per cent of the vote in his state’s gubernatorial contest. The 44-year-old has a little of the Donald about him, but he also is a war veteran and Yale and Harvard educated.
While I don’t share Trump’s politics, many Americans do, especially Republicans who dominate the primaries. But Trump – declared dead on arrival when he turned up for the early Republican debates ahead of the 2016 primaries – took down a former Florida governor named Jeb Bush. At the time Bush also was seen as a frontrunner. Who is to say Trump can’t do it again?
Granted, DeSantis is more quick-witted than Bush ever was. But DeSantis may not even run if Trump does. At 44 he has time on his side, especially in the US where the incumbent president is nearly 80 and seriously considering running again in two years for another four-year term. If successful in 2024, Joe Biden could become the fifth president to die of natural causes while still in office.
The irony that Trump’s political demise is being set in stone by many GOP heavyweights because of a single midterm underperformance by others when many Republicans continued to stand by Trump despite his resounding defeat in 2020, the Capitol riots he provoked and the many tax investigations he has faced (some of which are still afoot) shouldn’t be lost on anyone.
It really does speak to the broken state of politics and democracy in the US. But those same broken elements of the system could still support a Trump comeback.
If Trump doesn’t contest the 2024 presidential race I doubt it will be because of the midterm results. Age, fatigue and concerns about ongoing investigations are all much more likely to dissuade him from running than the failures of others this week. A belief that DeSantis is a worthy successor might be another.
Don’t forget, Trump only has to win over the Republican side of the partisan ledger to become its presidential nominee. His appeal to rusted-on Republicans might not be enough to return him to the White House, just as it wasn’t enough to keep him there in 2020.
But Trump’s capacity to get those rusted-on Republican voters to turn out at a primary remains significant. His rhetorical skills, his ability to browbeat and bring down opponents, remain potent. DeSantis might be reluctant to put himself through that. And the former president is used to being underestimated by his adversaries.
So while trumpeting Trump’s chances of successfully contesting the Republican primaries has become a contrarian opinion, it’s no long shot. His presence in the contest would wreak havoc on the other candidates even if he didn’t win. To be sure, a Trump comeback also would be disastrous for the US and the world on so many levels. Even just the contest for president would have consequences that are worrying enough, polarising the voting public.
Trump’s disregard for good graces and good manners, alongside his profoundly bigoted opinions, will only widen the gap between team red and team blue in the US. If the Republican Party officially endorses his candidacy, its unofficial endorsement of his claims that the 2020 election was stolen will amplify. That narrative would take centre stage in the next contest if Trump becomes the nominee, further eroding confidence in the systems of government that have underpinned US political culture for so long.
In the unlikely event that Trump is successful at the 2024 general election, what he might do next in relation to Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan, payback for anyone and everyone within the DC establishment, you name it, it is terrifying to even think about.
Yuval Noah Harari, historian and author of the best-selling book Sapiens, recently noted that there is an outside chance the next presidential election in the US is the last democratic one held. While I share his observation that such a scenario is highly unlikely, the mere fact someone so reputable is prepared to make such an observation without fear of being laughed out of the room says a lot. And he’s right, there is a chance.
Biden has started to wave around the risks Republicans pose to democracy, using the warnings as a reason to vote Democrat. It may have helped stave off this week’s expected red wave. But the failures of US democracy don’t reside on only one side of the political divide. Democrats haven’t adequately captured mainstream attention, nor have they appealed sufficiently in states dominated by Middle America. Equally, the US political and electoral systems are contributing to the cultural erosion of democracy: the lack of independence among electoral administrations, the distorting effect non-compulsory voting has on political participation, and money in politics are all hastening the decline of the US.
A Trump return would electrify all these dangers to democracy in the US when democracy is under siege right around the world, and Trump is no defender of democracy – not the values that underpin it, nor the important role it has played (in conjunction with capitalism) in the rise of the US to the great power status it retains today.
Peter van Onselen is professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.
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