What happens now US has quit Paris deal?

Donald Trump has announced he’ll withdraw from the Paris climate accord. What will it mean?

Donald Trump is expected to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord. Picture: AP.

Donald Trump has announced the US has withdrawn from the Paris climate accord.

But what does a US withdrawal mean?

I will be announcing my decision on Paris Accord, Thursday at 3:00 P.M. The White House Rose Garden. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 1, 2017

What is the Paris climate accord?

Every country signed up to the Paris accord has pledged to lower its greenhouse gas emissions and agreed regularly to meet to review progress and encourage each other to ratchet up their efforts as to meet those targets.

Barack Obama enacted the deal in 2015, pledging to cut domestic greenhouse gas emissions 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2025 as well as to commit up to $3 billion in aid for poorer countries by 2020.

But unlike its predecessor, the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris deal isn’t binding, so countries that don’t follow through with their commitments on curbing carbon dioxide emissions by 2025 won’t face enforceable sanctions.

What other countries have declined to join?

If the US leaves, it will join just two other nonparticipating countries; Syria, which is in the midst of a civil war and Nicaragua, which believed the accord didn’t go far enough. Even the poorest countries in the world, including Liberia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have signed up.

How would the US leave the accord?

Because the deal is non-binding, there are no penalties if the US withdraws, but the formal process would take around four years, experts say.

European Union Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Picture: AFP.

Last week the president of the European Commission said Mr Trump doesn’t “comprehensively understand” the terms of the accord, although European leaders tried to explain the process for withdrawing to him “in clear, simple sentences” during summit meetings last week

Jean-Claude Juncker said: “It looks like that attempt failed. This notion, ‘I am Trump, I am American, America first and I am getting out,’ that is not going to happen.”

What would leaving mean to the US?

Abandoning the pact would harm America’s reputation and isolate the country from a raft of international allies who spent years negotiating the 2015 agreement. Without a US place at the climate table, it also gives China more opportunity to exert itself on the world stage.

Withdrawing would leave the United States aligned only with Russia among the world’s industrialised economies.

The decision might also lead Europe, China and other countries to withhold co-operation on issues the Trump administration cares about and to refrain from making long-term commitments with Washington.

While travelling abroad last week, Mr Trump was repeatedly pressed to stay in the deal by European leaders and the Vatican.

American corporate leaders have also appealed to the president to stay. They include Apple, Google and Walmart. Even fossil fuel companies such as Exxon Mobil, BP and Shell say the United States should abide by the deal.

I told @realDonaldTrump not to abandon the #ParisAgreement on #climatechange says @bhpbilliton chief Andrew Mackenzie. #abc730 pic.twitter.com/c2f8BEZsEV

— abc730 (@abc730) June 1, 2017

What does it mean to the rest of the world?

A US withdrawal doesn’t mean the end of the Paris deal: China and the EU have already reaffirmed their commitments in the light of Mr Trump’s comments. But withdrawal by such a major player could undermine efforts by the rest of the world to tackle climate change as some may relax their own plans to curb carbon emissions.

David G. Victor, a professor of international relations at the University of California, San Diego, told the New York Times developing countries such as India and the Philippines might be more reluctant to act if the US withdrew aid to help them adjust to the worst effects of climate change.

News of Mr Trump’s expected decision drew swift reaction from the United Nations. The organisation’s main Twitter page quoted Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as saying, “Climate change is undeniable. Climate change is unstoppable. Climate solutions provide opportunities that are unmatchable.”

Climate change is undeniable

Climate action is unstoppable

Climate solutions provide opportunities that are unmatchable.
-@antonioguterres https://t.co/a8O14NCLUc

— United Nations (@UN) May 31, 2017

What other options could he take?

Some of Mr Trump’s aides have been searching for a middle ground — perhaps by renegotiating the terms of the agreement — in an effort to thread the needle between his base of supporters who oppose the deal and those warning that a US exit would deal a blow to the fight against global warming as well as to worldwide US leadership.

The fact that the deal is nonbinding means the US could stay in the accord and choose not to hit its goals or stay in the pact but adjust its targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“Paris more than anything is a symbol,” said Nigel Purvis, who directed US climate diplomacy during the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations

Another option, said University of California, Berkeley climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, would be for Mr Trump to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the treaty on which the Paris accord was based, which would take only a year. However this is a more radical option as it would signal a withdrawal from all UN sponsored climate discussions.

Mr Trump should also remember that just not being part of the Paris deal doesn’t mean the US won’t come under peer pressure to reduce emissions.

With AP