University leaders losing hope for early international student return

University leaders are losing hope that international students will be able to return to Australia in first semester next year.

University of Queensland vice-chancellor Deborah Terry.

University leaders are losing hope that international students will be able to return to Australia in first semester next year, dealing a major blow to their plans to staunch university budget losses.

University of Queensland vice-chancellor Deborah Terry told a breakfast seminar last week that “in all likelihood” Australia’s borders would not be open for international students until the middle of 2021.

Speaking in her first week as vice-chancellor, Professor Terry told a Queensland Futures Institute breakfast that the higher education sector was “more and more of the view” that the programs planned to test procedures for the safe return of international students would not be able to go ahead until this summer, or even months into next year. This would put back large scale international student entry until later in the year.

On Tuesday University of Sydney vice-chancellor Michael Spence backed up Professor Terry’s view, telling his staff in an email that the international student “secure corridor” proposal — the pilot plan for return of students — was not expected to be in place early enough to have a positive impact on 2021 international student enrolments.

“It is looking increasingly likely that our international student enrolments for Semester 1 2021 will not return to pre-COVID levels as we had all originally hoped,” Professor Spence wrote.

“This means that we must now look closely at our projections for 2021 and revise our revenue forecast downwards.”

However he also said that this year’s expected $470m budget shortfall had been largely mitigated because of savings measures and more students than expected enrolling in this year’s second semester, which is about to begin.

Even planning for international student return in mid 2021 may be optimistic. Some senior high education sector figures believe that large scale student return may not happen until 2022.

The federal, state and territory governments are now agreed that Australia’s borders will remain closed for the foreseeable future.

Following the national cabinet meeting last Friday, Scott Morrison said it was agreed that the restriction on travel into Australia would remain for “some months”.

“We are not going to put any further strain on the quarantine arrangements around the country,” he said.

However the international education industry would like to see the pilot entry programs for international students go ahead in states and territories which have robust plans in place and a low level of COVID infection.

International Education Association of Australia chief executive Phil Honeywood said that South Australia, the Northern Territory and the ACT have “well thought out” proposals for pilot student entry.

He called on the Prime Minister to drop his earlier insistence that international students could only return after Australians were free to travel between states.

A handful of international students enrolled in medicine, dentistry and veterinary science courses have returned to Australia since the border closed in March.

They were exempted on the basis that they could not study their courses online.

Additional reporting: Mackenzie Scott