New research predicts bleaching for nearly all the world’s corals

Even if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees nearly all of the world’s coral reefs will face catastrophic bleaching.

Bleached coral on a reef in Indonesia. Photo: Maria Beger

New research from James Cook University and international partner universities has found that global warming of as little as 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels will be catastrophic for nearly all coral reefs.

Associate Professor Scott Heron said that the world’s coral reefs would suffer, even in places where they have a better chance of surviving due to a consistent upwelling of deep, cool water.

He said that only 0.2 per cent of coral reefs globally are projected to avoid frequent stressing from bleaching-level heat if temperatures rose by 1.5 degrees.

Although recovery time from bleaching depended on local conditions, Dr Heron said it took at least ten years.

“Most coral reefs won’t have time to recover between bleaching events,” he said.

The research findings are alarming because 1.5 degrees has been set as a target limit for global warming in international agreements.

“This analysis confirms that significant action on greenhouse gas emissions is urgent and needed this decade. We also need to ramp up local actions to help reefs survive through already predicted impacts,” Dr Heron said.

The research was carried out in conjunction with the University of Leeds and Texas Tech University.