Governments can’t lose sight of the goal of bringing back students

It should be a major priority of governments to get flights in the air, and all the arrangements made, for the safe return of international students.

In the middle of a tempest it can be hard to focus on, let alone see, a goal that’s on the horizon. But that’s what governments in Australia need to do right now to plan the safe return of international students.

Until COVID-19 roared back in Victoria there was a fairly straightforward plan to bring back students in substantial numbers next year.

Universities were planning for the charter of aircraft and strict quarantine arrangements. State and territory governments — very aware of the economic loss they were sustaining because of the ­absence of tens of thousands of students — were ready to back the plans with public health and security resources.

South Australia and the ACT had relatively modest plans for a pilot starting this month to bring in 800 and 700 students respectively — a test for much larger intakes next year.

Victoria — where international education is the No 1 export — was more ambitious, planning to bring in 7000 students soon, to be spread between the state’s eight universities.

NSW went for the moonshot with a proposal to fly in one planeload of 250 students a day for 100 days — that’s 25,000 students — also starting soon.

But because of the alarming COVID-19 spike in Victoria, all this is on hold, and the far-reaching NSW and Victorian plans will definitely not be going ahead. Indeed Sydney Airport is cutting its international arrivals to a maximum of 450 passengers a day and only 50 per plane.

Quite understandably, the fact international students won’t be returning to Australia in large numbers any time soon is not a top-of-mind issue for health authorities or governments. Their priority is to get on top of the virus outbreak and restore confidence in Australia’s until recently successful policies to quash COVID.

But if the opportunity to bring back students slips past, then the risk grows that Australia’s international education industry will never adequately get back on its feet.

This would lead to the permanent loss of tens of thousands of jobs, in education and in the broader community, and deal universities a very heavy blow.

The seriousness of the situation is not always obvious, even to well-informed observers.

Scott Morrison seemingly played it down by stating that 80 per cent of international students who were expected to come to Australia this year made it here. That figure was correct in April but it’s not a realistic description of the scale of the damage that universities are suffering.

Here’s the reason. While many students did arrive — more than 30,000 Chinese came via third countries after direct flights to Australia stopped on February 1 — these missing students from first semester are not the biggest problem. (Many of them stayed enrolled through online study and, if the charter flights had gone ahead, could now be planning their return.)

The bigger issue is that the roughly 80,000 students who were expected to arrive later this year and begin courses for second semester are not arriving.

The loss of these commencing students has a snowball effect.

Because they come for a three-year bachelor degree, or a two- year master degree (and possibly a pre-degree preparatory course lasting several months) their ­absence carries over into future years.

For these reason it’s supremely important to be able to safely bring large numbers of students into Australia for the first semester of 2021. If we don’t, that is a further 100,000 commencing students who are lost, each of whom would have stayed for two to three years.

Plus there’s the danger of more current international students who are stuck overseas deciding to defer, possibly never to resume.

Some rough figuring illustrates the point. The difference between all of the usual quota of about 100,000 commencing students arriving in Australia for first semester next year, and none of them arriving, is $3bn to $3.5bn in fee revenue for universities. It’s an enormous swing factor for universities as they plan their 2021 budgets, and for the federal government as it plans university research funding reforms to be announced in the October budget.

There are also other factors at play. Australia is not the only player in the international education market.

Britain and Canada are highly competitive and, not withstanding COVID, accepting student arrivals in large numbers for the start of their academic year in September. The US under Donald Trump is not a desirable destination for students. But that could change if Joe Biden wins in November.

In short, while Australia’s good management of the COVID crisis has been seen as a major advantage in the battle to win international students, we can’t count on its staying that way.

Right now, 2021 may seem to be on the distant horizon, but it’s drawing closer fast. Plans have to be made. How long would it take to bring 100,000 students into the country, bearing in mind the limitations on quarantine facilities? At 1000 a day it would take 100 days.

It’s true that the COVID spike does need urgent attention from government right now. But getting the international students industry back on track is an essential part of the recovery.