Coronavirus: Threat to $12.5bn in education exports

Victoria’s second wave of coronavirus infections threatens to wipe out the state’s international education industry — worth $12.55bn.

International Education Association chief executive Phil Honeywood says Victoria’s failure to suppress the virus had now threatened the chances of his ­industry recovering. Picture: Aaron Francis

Victoria’s second wave of coronavirus infections threatens to wipe out the state’s international education industry — worth $12.55bn — and leave more than 27,000 foreign students studying at Melbourne universities stranded overseas, with the sector saying the outbreak has put its national recovery at risk.

International education was Victoria’s biggest export by far in 2018-19, according to data from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, outstripping tourism to the state by $6bn and Victorian wool exports by $10bn.

Victoria is the only state where education is the biggest export and it makes up close to 50 per cent of its entire services exports market. While NSW’s education export market was worth $13bn last year, it comes in a far second to the state’s $20bn in coal exports.

The Australian revealed on Monday that pilot programs to return small batches of current foreign students in NSW, Victoria, the ACT and South Australia were all now on hold due to the Melbourne COVID-19 outbreak.

International Education Association chief executive Phil Honeywood said Victoria’s failure to suppress the virus had now threatened the chances of his ­industry recovering.

“So while our biggest competitor countries, the UK and Canada, are open to international students, one state in Australia has compromised the future of the whole industry,” he said. “The irony is that Victoria’s biggest industry is international education.”

Group of Eight chief executive Vicki Thomson warned on Monday that the nation faces losing international students currently signed up to universities as long as the pandemic drags on. She added that the chances of pilot programs going ahead were now remote.

“We all want the same thing —– a return to some kind of normality. But that is highly unlikely any time soon, and our first priority must be to follow the advice of our health authorities at all times,” she said.

“The longer this situation continues, the greater the risk of our international students reconsidering their options.

“In terms of the financial challenges, they remain for our universities regardless of whether or not we can achieve a small-scale pilot program in semester two, which, all things being equal, looks increasingly unlikely at this stage.”

The Victorian COVID-19 spike has jeopardised all state government plans for an early entry of international students. A proposal developed by Victorian universities and the Andrews government to bring 7000 international students to that state has fallen victim to the virus.

Universities in NSW had developed a plan with Berejiklian government officials to fly into Sydney 250 international students every day for 100 days, beginning later this month.

Following the Victorian outbreak and imposition of tough restrictions on inter­national flights into Sydney, that plan was halted.

Federal government sources also say smaller programs to deliver 700 students to the ACT and 800 to South Australia are on hold, partly due to Victoria’s outbreak.

ANU higher education researcher Andrew Norton said the pilot programs were always unlikely to go ahead, but he still believed there was a chance of a recovery next year.

“The second semester was likely lost anyway, which will be dis­appointing to all those students doing courses online and would rather be back here,” he said.

“I wouldn’t think there is the political appetite to open those borders any time soon.

“The biggest question is 2021 and there is still a chance Victoria gets this outbreak under control and we can see the borders opened and new fee-paying students being able to travel here for the first ­semester next year.”

There are more than 27,000 university students at Victorian ­institutions with student visas who are currently trapped overseas due to international border closures, making up 21 per cent of the state’s international student populace.

The Australian also revealed on Monday that the government is considering plans to give graduate work rights to all continuing foreign students who have been forced to study online after they were unable to return to Australia.

NSW would likely benefit most from those visa changes as it has more than 35,000 students with visas outside of Australia.