Federal election 2016: Joy and pain for Turnbull - who won the day?

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times for the Prime Minister. Our verdict on who won the day.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The election campaign on Wednesday brought joy and pain to Malcolm Turnbull with a surprise boost to economic growth followed swiftly by another outbreak of disunity over superannuation tax changes. The Prime Minister might want to herald the age of wisdom under his leadership, but the events looked to insiders like an age of foolishness instead.

Apologies for the Charles Dickens quotes, but Wednesday really was a tale of two campaigns: a victory for the Coalition on the economy but a messy defeat for the Coalition on super. Which matters more? The answer to that question helps to tease out whether Turnbull “won” the day against Bill Shorten – and it goes a long way to assessing who is edging ahead in the campaign as a whole.

The national accounts, showing growth of 3.1 per cent for the year to the end of March, has given Turnbull and Scott Morrison their best chance yet to make the case for their company tax cuts. Overlook, for a moment, the fact that most of the economy is outside a politician’s control. The official figures meant the Prime Minister and Treasurer could claim the Coalition was managing the economy well.

The Coalition MPs and candidates who started spreading dissent over super have now wrecked that plan for Turnbull and Morrison. While Sky News political editor David Speers reported that MPs wanted to revisit the super tax hikes after the election, no Liberal MPs would go on the record with me to say the same. Off the record, the most an MP would say was that it might be good to “polish” the super reforms after the election. Nobody would own up to agitating for big changes.

Cabinet Secretary Arthur Sinodinos said the government would consult on “subsidiary matters” after the election but that the overall policy would stay: “What I’m saying is if we get a mandate for the measure it will be implemented in the way it’s being described to the public in this election, because we’ll have a mandate for it and we’ll have a promise that we’ll want to keep.” Coalition MPs including Ewen Jones and Craig Kelly stood by the super changes. We reported their views on our blog today, here:

The government insists, time and again, that its super changes only affect 4 per cent of super account holders. This is the key figure in this debate. It is not the top 4 per cent of Australians by income. It clearly covers some people on average earnings. The most important government calculation is that this group is not big enough to toss Turnbull and Morrison out of power.

Ministers express full confidence that they can win the election with the super changes as they stand. They may antagonise supporters in blue-ribbon seats but they will win enough marginal seats to retain government. A backdown on super would not help them win the campaign. It would do exactly the opposite.

Yes, disunity is death. The continuing dissent over super is a major problem for Turnbull’s campaign. Even so, the upside surprise on the economy carries more weight. It matters more to the country and can influence more voters.

On this issue, the central test for both sides during the campaign, Shorten was completely absent. He appeared at a doorstop before the national accounts figures were released at 11:30am and said nothing afterwards. Labor treasury spokesman Chris Bowen offered an immediate response to the official figures but also fell silent afterwards. Labor judged that it was best to leave the Coalition to its disunity, but it also looked like Labor were reluctant to engage in an economic debate.

Who won the day? Turnbull.