Federal election 2016: Xenophon’s poll surge threatens major parties

Nick Xenophon’s primary vote is throwing up an election wildcard as voters abandon the major parties.

Senator Nick Xenophon.

Nick Xenophon is polling 22 per cent of the primary vote in South Australia, throwing up an election wildcard as more than a third of voters in the state abandon the major parties.

Amid speculation that the high-profile independent could snare up to three Senate seats, an analysis of Newspoll figures from the past two months taken exclusively for The Australian shows the primary vote for the Nick Xenophon Team is now just five points below that of the Labor Party.

Since the 2013 election, Labor’s primary vote has dropped from 35.7 per cent to 27 per cent, while the Coalition’s primary vote has dived from 44.9 per cent to 34 per cent.

The number of South Australians indicating they would vote for “other” parties — excluding the Greens — is at a record-high 34 per cent, of which 22 per cent have ­indicated their vote will go to the new Xenophon party, 5 per cent for Family First and 1 per cent for the Palmer United Party.

Support for the Greens has halved to 5 per cent since March to be the lowest for the party in any state.

The combined vote for the ­Coalition and Labor in South Australia has fallen to just six out of 10, with 39 per cent of voters in the state saying they will not put the major parties as their first choice on polling day.

In comparison, the total vote for the Greens and other minor parties and independents nationally is 23 per cent.

The surging vote for Senator Xenophon in his home state is similar to the 24.9 per cent he secured for the Senate in 2013, but under changed voting rules and in a ­double-dissolution election that halves the election quota, this would translate to three upper house positions if replicated on July 2.

For the first time, Senator Xenophon, who switched from state politics to the Senate in 2007, is running candidates under the banner of his Nick Xenophon Team in all 11 South Australian electorates, six of which are held by government MPs.

The poll suggests the Coalition’s promise to deliver the $50 billion submarine contract has done little to lift the government’s standing among voters, with its primary vote at its lowest level since the last election, and seven percentage points lower than the 41 per cent it recorded in the March quarter.

Senator Xenophon, who has campaigned relentlessly on South Australia’s shipbuilding industry, is targeting the Liberals’ blue-ribbon Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo, held by dumped junior minister Jamie Briggs on a 12.5 per cent margin, and the seat of Sturt, held by cabinet minister Christopher Pyne with a 10 per cent buffer.

Labor polled just 21 per cent of the primary vote in Mayo in 2013, giving the NXT candidate Rebekha Sharkie the chance to poll second to Mr Briggs, and leapfrog into winning position on the back of Labor preferences.

Previously safe seats for both major parties are also at risk given the unpredictable three-way contests, with Labor concerned that Port Adelaide is vulnerable, despite incumbent Mark Butler winning more than 50 per cent of the primary vote at the last election.

Senator Xenophon has pledged to run open tickets in most lower house seats, including in Mayo, but has not ruled out striking deals in certain contests.

Last week, when pressed on which party he would back to form government if he won the balance of power in the House of Representatives, Senator Xenophon said it was a“far fetched and fanciful” situation and refused to nominate a party.

“I think we’re talking about very much a hypothetical situation,” he said, adding that candidates would have to seek feedback from their electorate before backing either side.