Federal election 2016: Turnbull haunted by past leader ratings

Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity has followed an similar ­trajectory as when he was ­leader seven years ago.

Malcolm Turnbull in Brisbane yesterday.

The rise and fall in Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity as Prime Minister has followed an eerily similar ­trajectory as when he was ­opposition leader seven years ago.

Analysis of his net satisfaction rating in Newspolls, taken exclusively for The Australian, shows in both cases there was an initial surge in support before his standing fell into negative territory.

When Mr Turnbull seized the Liberal leadership in 2008 his net satisfaction rating — the difference between those who are satisfied with his performance and those who are dissatisfied — quickly rose to 28 percentage points. But after a few months it fell into single digits and was below zero after 11 Newspoll surveys.

When Mr Turnbull become Prime Minister last September his net satisfaction rating again surged, to a high of 38 points, but within 10 surveys it had tumbled below zero. The most recent Newspoll showed Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating at minus 12 points — exactly the same level as Bill Shorten. It has deteriorated 50 points from the peak of his popularity in November.

“I think it’s very interesting the decline in Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity matches the decline the first time around,” said Newspoll pollster David Briggs. “While the factors might be different, we know from the recent Newspoll that Mr Turnbull’s rating on being decisive and strong has declined and that’s underpinning the fall.”

However, there is a different pattern in the primary vote performance of the Coalition under Mr Turnbull’s two stints as leader.

In 14 months in opposition, when he was facing a government led by a popular Kevin Rudd, the Coalition’s primary vote mostly stayed between 35 and 39 per cent, only twice breaking through 40 per cent. On becoming Prime Minister Mr Turnbull immediately restored the Coalition’s primary vote from the mid-30s to above 40 per cent. It has been above 40 per cent for 14 consecutive surveys, although having hit a high of 46 per cent in his first months in charge, it has been at a low of 41 per cent since April.