Federal election 2016: Sophie Mirabella’s chances in Indi appear lost

Collapsing support for former Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella is killing her chances in the seat of Indi.

Sophie Mirabella, with Tim Fischer and Cathy McGowan behind her, in Wodonga. Picture: Simon Dallinger.

Collapsing support for former Liberal­ frontbencher Sophie Mira­bella is killing her chances in the Victorian seat of Indi, with voters deserting her in droves.

The major parties have written off Ms Mirabella’s chances of being returned to office amid strong backing for independent Cathy McGowan and a clumsy ­beginning to Ms Mirabella’s campaign. Labor has tracked primary support for Ms Mirabella “in the 20s’’ and the Nationals believe the power of incumbency for Ms McGowan makes her an odds-on prospect.

The Australian understands Ms Mirabella is getting conflicting ­advice on how to win, with some supporters backing an “all-out ­assault’’ but others warning that she needs to avoid controversy.

The former MP told a TV audience last month that the voters of Indi had cost themselves a multi-million-dollar upgrade to the hospita­l in Wangaratta, a key population centre 250km northeast of Melbourne, when they voted against her.

“I had a commitment for a $10 million allocation to the Wanga­ratta hospital that if elected I was going to announce a week after the election,” she said. “That is $10m that Wangaratta hasn’t had because Cathy got elected.”

The comments gave Ms McGowan a powerful platform as an anti-politician who doesn’t play the games of the major parties.

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Senior Liberals said the party would be urged not to pour extra resources into the seat because it couldn’t be won. “It’s over before it’s started,’’ one said.

In 2010, Ms Mirabella was elect­ed with 52.7 per cent of the ­primary vote; this had fallen to 44.7 per cent in 2013 when she lost the seat. Her primary vote today has halved since 2010, with her only hope being a marked bounce caused by what was broadly considered a flat budget.

Ms Mirabella retains strong support across the party, including with former prime minister Tony ­Abbott, but she has become a lightning rod for ridicule in Indi and from internal and political oppon­ents.

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Senior Nationals figures told The Australian that Ms Mirabella’s divisiveness had exacerbated long-running friction between the Nationals and the Liberals.

While northern parts of the seat were Liberal, there was a strong Nationals base to the south. A senior Labor figure said: “Mirabella is cooked.’’

Her poor standing has created a conundrum for the party, which was forced to pour in resources during the 2013 campaign when it became clear what should have been a safe seat was under attack.

Given the challenges in Indi, the Coalition partners have decided­ to focus more attention on Murray after Liberal Sharman Stone quit the electorate after 20 years. Former state Nationals MP Damian Drum — a former Australian rules coach at the highest level — quit the Victorian upper house to contest Murray, which is to the west and northwest of Indi.

The Liberal candidate for Murray, Duncan McGauchie, is a former adviser to the Baillieu and Napthine state governments and is considered a strong prospect for promotion if he can win the seat.