Federal election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull behind as marathon begins

Malcolm Turnbull starts the fight of his political life with the government trailing Labor | NEWSPOLL

Malcolm Turnbull begins the fight of his political life with the government failing to receive any poll bounce from last week’s budget, meaning the Coalition starts a marathon 55-day election campaign behind Labor, according to the latest Newspoll.

Despite Mr Turnbull’s pledge to restore the Coalition’s poll lead and to show economic leadership when he toppled Tony Abbott as Prime Minister eight months ago, the latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals Labor has maintained its lead of 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent in two-party-preferred terms.

And voters have judged that the Turnbull government’s budget will leave them personally worse off. Women aged between 35 and 49 and earning less than $100,000 believe they will be the hardest-hit but Mr Turnbull insisted yesterday his economic plan was “fair, not just to Australians today, but to the generations that will come after us” and attacked Labor’s solu­tion as a tax-and-spend platform.

As Bill Shorten pledged budget “repair that is fair”, with more spending on families, health and education, Newspoll reveals two out of five voters say they would be prepared to see a reduction in taxpayer-funded entitlements, such as family payments, as a means to repair the budget.

The 55-day campaign that began yesterday rivals the 54-day campaign by Bob Hawke in 1984, in which the then government recorde­d a two-point swing against it, despite Mr Hawke recording an ACNielsen popul­arity rating of 75 per cent after calling that double­-dissolution election.

The Newspoll of 1739 people taken from Thursday to Saturday, in the wake of the budget that Mr Turnbull is using as a springboard for the election and the Opposition Leader’s budget reply speech, found no lift for the Coalition’s prim­ary vote, still at 41 per cent for the third consecutive survey.

Labor gained one point to 37 per cent, its highest primary vote since Mr Turnbull became Prime Minister 238 days ago.

Based on preference flows from the last election, with the Greens’ primary vote unchanged at 11 per cent and support for minor parties and independents down one point to 11 per cent, Labor maintained the 51-49 per cent two-party lead it has held since early last month.

Newspoll found 39 per cent of voters said they would be worse off as a result of the budget while just 18 per cent believe they will be better off, with 43 per cent uncommitted. Among women, 40 per cent said they would be worse off compared with just 15 per cent believing they would be better off. For men, it was 38 and 20 per cent.

Across all age groups, voters said they would be hit by the budget Only among people earning more than $100,000 and Coalition voters did more people say they would be better off — and then only by a narrow margin.

However, in a hopeful sign for Mr Turnbull’s pitch that the budget is a longer-term plan, 34 per cent voters said it would be good for the economy compared with 29 per cent who thought it would be bad, with 37 per cent undecided.

Men, voters aged between 18 and 24 and those earning more than $100,000 were the most positive about the economic boost, although­ it did not reach a major­ity in any demographic group.

Mr Turnbull begins the campaign easily ahead as the better prime minister, leading Mr Shorten by 49 per cent to 27 per cent.

His two-point rise to 49 per cent is the first increase on this measure since mid-November, ending a run of declines after Mr Turnbull soared to a six-year high for any leader in the weeks after he replaced­ Mr Abbott.

Mr Shorten dropped one point to 27 per cent but remains well ahead of the 14 per cent nadir he reached late last year.

As both leaders campaign today in Queensland, where the Coalition is defending 10 seats held by less than 7 per cent, Newspoll shows the satisfaction ratings for both men is becoming close, with 38 per cent satisfied with the Prime Minister’s performance and 33 per cent satisfied with Mr Shorten, both up two points.

Half of voters are dissatisfied with both men, with Mr Turnbull’s rating at 49 per cent and Mr Shorten at 52 per cent. Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating, which measures the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied, sits on -11 points, a sharp deterior­ation from late last year, when it was a positive 38 points. Mr Shorten’s is -19 points and has improved.

Mr Turnbull set in ­motion a 103-day countdown to a July 2 election in March, with his visit to Governor-General Peter Cosgrove to prorogue the parliament to set up the conditions for a double-dissolution poll.

Federal election 2016: full coverage