Federal election 2016: 30pc of women yet to choose between leaders

A record percentage of women have yet to decide whether they prefer Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten | NEWSPOLL

A record 30 per cent of women have yet to decide whether they prefer Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten, as the Labor leader attracts a surge in support from men.

An analysis of Newspolls, taken exclusively for The Australian over the past two months, shows the government is favoured by both sexes but the opposition has reduced the significant advantage the Coalition enjoyed at the last election.

The poll of 6819 voters shows support for the Coalition among men and women is at 41 per cent, compared with 36 per cent for Labor. The government’s primary vote has tumbled 7.4 points among men since the last election — more than double the 2.9-point drop among women.

Although almost all the men switched their support to Labor, the Coalition’s lost female vote has been split evenly among Labor, the Greens and other parties.

Among men, Mr Turnbull leads as the preferred prime minister over Mr Shorten by 50 per cent to 32 per cent — but the Labor leader has picked up a significant 10 points since April while Mr Turnbull has shed eight points, with 18 per cent of men undecided.

Women back Mr Turnbull as the better PM by 45 per cent to Mr Shorten’s 25 per cent, but have marked the Liberal leader down seven points in the past two months. A record 30 per cent of women are undecided.

For the past seven elections, the undecided female vote on the measure of the better PM has ranged between 14 and 20 per cent.

It is the same trend in the satisfaction ratings for both leaders, with twice as many women as men undecided about the performance of both leaders.

The post-budget Newspoll this month revealed that women aged 35-49 years with an income less than $100,000 believed they were hit hardest by the budget. One of the key decisions by Scott Morrison was to delay the government’s childcare package by a year.

John Cherry, the advocacy manager for Goodstart Early Learning, said childcare affordability was a big issue for many working women. “Neither side of politics has had much to say about it in this election campaign so far. Working parents want immediate relief on childcare affordability and not be made to wait another two years, having been kept waiting many years already,” he said.

GRAPHIC: Newspoll analysis

Jo Briskey, the executive director of lobby group The Parenthood, said there was increasing concern that policies such as parental leave and childcare had fallen off the agenda. “We’re really looking for a party to step up with a credible plan to help mums have enough time with their newborn babies and eventually return to work without having to struggle with skyrocketing childcare costs,” she said. “Ultimately, when it comes to polling day, parents will support politicians who support their families.”

Both major parties are expected to step up their pitch to women and families after Labor last week was forced to admit it would not reinstate the Schoolkids Bonus after two years complaining about the government decision to axe it.

At the weekend Mr Shorten said Labor would give the ABC $21 million to televise an extra 500 hours of women’s sport in the next four years. Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm yesterday attacked the pledge as a politically correct waste of money, prompting Mr Shorten to respond: “Back to the cave, stone-age man.”

The analysis of the Newspoll surveys taken over the past two months, including the budget and the start of the election campaign, shows Mr Turnbull’s satisfaction among female voters has fallen nine points to 35 per cent; 47 per cent are dissatisfied, also up nine points, with 18 per cent undecided.

Mr Shorten’s satisfaction among women over the same period increased five points to 30 per cent while dissatisfaction fell four points to 50 per cent, with 20 per cent undecided.

Mr Turnbull’s standing with men showed 40 per cent were satisfied with his performance, down eight points, and 51 per cent dissatisfied, up 11 points, with only 9 per cent uncommitted.

Similarly, 36 per cent of men were satisfied with Mr Shorten, up six points, and 53 per cent dissatisfied, down five points, with 11 per cent undecided.

The analysis shows while support for the Coalition is weakest among voters aged up to 34, there has been a sharper fall in support among voters 35 and older.

Among those aged 18 to 34, which includes first-time voters, 38 per cent support Labor, 33 per cent would vote for the Coalition and 16 per cent favour the Greens.

The government’s primary vote among over-50s has fallen below 50 per cent, dropping 5.8 points to 46 per cent, while among voters aged 35-49 it is down 5.5 points to 40 per cent.

Mr Turnbull is ranked the better PM across all age groups, although his support is weakest among younger voters.