Western Australia key to Labor second term, vital target for Liberals

It was Mark McGowan’s popularity in WA that delivered electoral success to Anthony Albanese. Picture: James Gourley/NCA NewsWire

Western Australia was both the key ingredient in Labor’s federal election victory and the vital state that Liberals must now target if Peter Dutton is to turn the Coalition’s fortunes around in three years’ time.

The WA Premier Mark McGowan deserves the lion’s share of credit for Labor picking up four seats in the west and thereby delivering Anthony Albanese majority government – which is not to diminish the new PM’s role in success in the west. He recognised its importance, challenged the Morrison government’s decision to initially support Clive Palmer’s high court borders case, backed the WA GST changes Scott Morrison implemented and took the unprecedented step of launching Labor’s election campaign in the west with three full weeks of campaigning left.

Anthony Albanese is no fool: he’ll pander to WA if only to protect his government. Picture: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

But it was Mr McGowan’s popularity in WA that cemented the electoral success that followed. Winning Swan and Pearce was the low hanging electoral fruit, but Labor has talked big without success in the west before and failed on this front. This time, the low-hanging fruit was picked off, as was the tougher task of gaining further seats.

Hasluck was picked up and remarkably so was the traditionally safe Liberal seat of Tangney, which saw Scott Morrison’s right-hand man, Ben Morton, lose his seat. Moore was also almost lost by the Liberals, and Canning is again now a wafer-thin marginal Liberal seat.

Winning four seats in WA alongside the absolution of the Liberal seat of Stirling (which also would have been lost had it not been) now sees Labor holding nine of the 15 WA seats on offer, the first time it has held the majority of WA seats in decades.

Liberal leader Peter Dutton will look to claw back votes in WA and rebuild the party. Picture: Zak Simmonds

While state and federal politics don’t always overlap, especially in the west, it turns out that Labor winning the recent state poll with around 70 per cent of the two-party vote – decimating the state Liberals in the process – absolutely counted at the federal election, as did the Labor premier having personal approval ratings in the clouds.

This is also why what happens next in the west will be so important to the coming three years. The global economy is uncertain, the relationship with China is on edge, the GST deal is due for renegotiation and Mr Dutton the Queenslander will fancy his chances of building bridges with WA voters. Queenslanders and West Aussies are kindred spirits of sorts, mining states with conservative values.

The odds are that Mr McGowan won’t be as popular three years from now as he currently is. How could he be, he holds holy status in the west right now for the way he managed the pandemic. Mr Dutton will look to claw back votes in WA and rebuild the party such that the federal opposition can competitively capture at least three of the seats it just lost across the Nullarbor. If that happens, Mr Albanese will instantly lose his working majority unless he can pick up seats elsewhere around the country.

If Liberals win just three of the seats they lost across the Nullarbor, Labor loses its working majority.

To be sure, the federal Labor caucus will have more MPs and senators to help make the case for looking after WA internally, but if that doesn’t materialise in policy outcomes WA voters will surely notice, and Mr Dutton will look to exploit the consequences. Mr McGowan and Mr Albanese get on well, and Albo is no fool: he’ll pander to WA if only to protect his government. But Mr McGowan equally won’t be afraid to use his megaphone to call out bad decisions in Canberra if they hurt his constituents.

Make no mistake, how the west was won locked in Labor’s federal success on Saturday night, and it’s the key to the new government’s capacity to bed that success down for a second term in three years’ time.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia.