Werribee result echoes Labor’s troublesome election past

Current and former prime ministers: Anthony Albanese, Scott Morrison, Tony Abbott, Malcom Turnbull, John Howard, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard.

When Labor politicians tell you state by-election results don’t matter when it comes to federal elections, don’t believe them. They’re dissembling or delusional, probably both.

In fact, certainly both.

Yes, voters can and do tell the difference between state and federal elections, even with governments of the same party, and by-elections tend to be a “free-kick” to send incumbent governments a message.

But, the size, place and timing of a swing in a state by-election can have huge consequences for a federal government and the prime minister.

Of all people, Anthony Albanese will be aware of this because a state by-election with a record swing against Labor in its heartland led to the removal of Kevin Rudd as prime minister and, ultimately, started the long slow process of Albanese’s underestimated rise to the leadership as others fell and failed while he survived.

The massive swing against state Labor in the stronghold of Werribee is being dismissed by cabinet ministers Katy Gallagher and Mark Butler as local issues “being played out in Victoria”.

But on June 19, 2010 Labor losing the state seat of Penrith for the first time in its existence with a swing of 25 per cent was the trigger for a leadership challenge against Mr Rudd because Labor MPs said the loss was a result of the then prime minister’s failure on illegal boat arrivals.

This was not opportunistic: The Australian published a story on the front page on June 19 stating that “mutineers were circling” Mr Rudd and could use the Penrith by-election result as a reason to launch a challenge within days. By the end of the following week a challenge was launched, Mr Rudd was defeated and Julia Gillard became prime minister on Friday.

At the ensuing election in 2010, Tony Abbott picked up seats in western Sydney for the Coalition and pushed Labor into minority government. The Penrith by-election result was an example of a much larger revolt in Labor’s traditional stronghold.

As well, there is now a general expectation that Mr Albanese is headed for minority government.

As Opposition Leader, Mr Albanese dealt with a NSW state by-election defeat for Labor in the Upper Hunter in May 2021 and dismissed it as local issues and went on to win the federal poll a year later.

But voters in the Hunter Valley in 2021, who supported Mr Rudd in 2007, simply did not believe the ALP would stand up for blue-collar workers by defending jobs and supporting reliable, affordable energy such as gas-fired power.

In some booths in the Upper Hunter in 2021, where there was 50 per cent support for Mr Rudd in 2007 in the federal seat of Hunter, Labor support was down to 20 per cent.

More than three years later concerns about the ALP brand in the old fortress of the Hunter Valley are resurfacing ahead of this year’s poll with miners concerned about losing their jobs and aggressive pursuit of renewable energy projects – such as offshore wind farming – turning off small businesses.

Of course, federal Labor will continue to play down the impact of the Werribee by-election and certainly won’t talk about the Upper Hunter by-election but, at least internally, Labor needs to stop denying that Saturday’s by-election swing against Labor is not a concern and recognise the problem it faces nationally.