The Overton window is a concept in political theory that describes the range of ideas and policies deemed acceptable or mainstream at a given time. It represents the spectrum of topics the media and policymakers consider reasonable or viable, often shifting over time in response to societal attitudes, influential voices, and broader cultural trends.
Named after Joseph P. Overton, the Overton window suggests that ideas fall along a spectrum from unthinkable (far outside the window) to radical, acceptable, sensible and popular. As the “window” shifts, ideas that were once seen as extreme or radical can become mainstream, while formerly accepted ideas might move outside the window and become “unthinkable”.
This model is often used to understand how political movements or activists push ideas toward the mainstream by advocating for them persistently, even if they’re initially unpopular. Once the Overton window shifts, policymakers may feel more comfortable introducing legislation or reforms previously considered out of bounds.
In essence, the Overton window illustrates how social and political norms evolve, influencing which policies are possible or impossible at any given time.
In the 1970s, the idea of détente between the West and the Soviet Union was in the Overton window. Contemplating abandoning deterrence and the containment of the Soviet Union was regarded as unacceptable. But so was another idea: that the Cold War with the Soviet Union could be won.
Then along came Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. They thought détente would never bring lasting peace and was a demonstration of Western weakness.
When Reagan deployed intermediate-range and potentially nuclear-armed missiles to Europe, and started to develop the missile defence system known as Star Wars, the establishment was shocked. It was extreme, outside the Overton window, unacceptable. Except it worked, leading to the end of the stalemate with the Soviet Union. Eventually the Soviets realised their system could not compete with the overwhelming prosperity, military technology and determination of America.
I was a young diplomatic officer at the Australian mission to the European Communities – as the European Union was then known – in the lead-up to the 1980 American election. The bien pensant of the West were horrified at the thought that Ronald Reagan would win. He was seen as way outside the Overton window. They hoped and prayed the Democrats’ Jimmy Carter would prevail.
Well, the question is: Are we at another moment in history when the Americans are going to shift the Overton window? I think we are.
The unforgivable decision by President Joe Biden to leave the Afghan people in the hands of the Taliban, the failure of the Americans and the West to deter Putin’s aggression in Eastern Europe and not least the invasion of Ukraine, the failure to stop Iran using its proxies to expand Iranian power through the Middle East and threaten the very existence of Israel, and the failure of the West to deter Chinese adventurism in the South China Sea must make even the most partisan Democrats wonder about the wisdom of their strategy.
Donald Trump has an alternative and it’s called “peace through strength”. That involves demanding allies wake up and pull their weight rather than leaving all the hard work to the Americans.
Just as the apologists for détente thought Reagan’s determination to win the Cold War against the Evil Empire was dangerous, so too the proponents of the Obama/Biden security policy paradigm built around the notion of “de-escalation” see Trump’s aggressive approach as a dangerous.
I think Trump is right. The West has to show a new determination to stand up to its adversaries, and instead of the West, and the Americans in particular, demanding “de-escalation” by their allies, the Americans should demand that their adversaries de-escalate. The policy of de-escalation is precisely the policy Neville Chamberlain pursued in the late 1930s. It had a different name then. It didn’t work then and it isn’t working now.
Trump’s election also has the potential to change the Overton window in economic policy. At the moment the prevailing Western policy is high taxes particularly on the successful entrepreneurial, industrious classes, high welfare spending, heavy financial and environmental regulations, and, importantly, policies of climate austerity. Cost hasn’t worried governments.
The results are clear. That formula in Australia has led to a 6 per cent decline in labour productivity over the past two years, falling real wages and rapidly rising energy prices. Europe’s performance has been equally poor, although America has done somewhat better, aided by cheap energy. But all Western countries have ended up with eye-watering levels of debt.
Trump wants to dump these policies. His plan includes cheap energy, dramatic reductions in taxes, a much reduced bureaucracy, and tariffs. While the tariffs won’t help the economy, the rest of his initiatives will substantially boost private sector investment and that in turn will raise living standards.
Of course, the elites of Europe, and for that matter our own country, will denigrate Trump. They regard themselves as morally superior. But the problem for them all, including the Australian government, is that Trump will have shifted the Overton window.
Expect the political class in Australia to respond to this. My prediction is that it will. Even the Labor Party will do its best to distance itself from woke cultural initiatives and language, it will more or less fall into line with Trump’s peace-through-strength foreign policy.
And expect the debate in Australia to shift, particularly on climate change policies. If the US cuts its corporate tax rate to 15 per cent and Australia’s remains at 30 per cent and 28 per cent, there will be a huge sucking sound as capital heads across the Pacific to the low-taxing United States.
More dramatically, high-taxing Europe will see capital flood to the US. Either Australia and the Europeans will respond to this by adopting at least a variation of the Trump economic model – hopefully without tariffs – or the United States economy will boom while the rest of the Western world flags.
The point is, the election of Donald Trump in America will substantially change the global status.
More Coverage
Loss of faith in democracy endangers us all
Politicians who seek to divide and rule are to blame for disenchantment with the status quo.
Why customer-owned banks give a real edge to competition
The great neobank experiment, with the exception of a couple, is all but dead and it’s the mutual banks which offer the ‘big four’ real competition, writes Brendan Wright.