There are hospital passes in politics, and then there is winning the state leadership of the Liberal Party in Western Australia right now.
That poisoned chalice has been bestowed on Zak Kirkup, a 33-year-old university drop out who has only ever worked as a political staffer.
The WA Liberal Party has already cycled through two opposition leaders this term: a former Treasurer and a former Deputy Premier no less. Both are now gone. Former minister and one time mid-level banking executive, Dean Nalder, saw the unwinnable predicament of taking over as Liberal leader ahead of the March state election and hence passed up the opportunity. He no doubt hopes to take over sometime next term, in opposition of course, in a bid to become Premier four years further down the track.
According to WA Liberals, Nalder has spent the best party of the last four years undermining both former opposition leaders behind the scenes, only to now pass up the opportunity to lead the party. So the party room has given the job to someone I wouldn’t hire as a research assistant.
Kirkup will go up against Labor Premier Mark McGowan in March next year. Liberals only hold 13 of the 59 lower house seats. McGowan has approval ratings in the 90s for his handling of the COVID crisis, as well as his preparedness to stand up to both Canberra and mining billionaire Clive Palmer on the borders. He is the most popular premier anywhere around the country, by far.
A drover’s dog couldn’t lose more seats
At one level that all works in Kirkup’s favour: it is not as if there are any expectations that he’ll succeed. Surely a drovers dog can’t lose more seats? Anyone capable of securing the leadership of a political party at his age deserves some credit. Perhaps Kirkup will surprise and do well enough to retain the leadership for another four years. That was the way it turned out for McGowan before his victory.
He’ll be glass half full about his chances.
But McGowan was a former minister with a serious pre-parliamentary career. Kirkup is a moderate (tick) and has a good backstory, not coming from the blue blood Liberal Party establishment (tick). His parents were genuinely working class and he went to a state school.
But my worry is that a genuine candidate of the future, which Kirkup is, might get chewed up and spat out too soon. Ending his political career before it even gets started. We have seen that happen so many times before, both in WA and around the country.
Libs’ lack of depth in WA
The real issue Kirkup’s rise to the top so quickly highlights — he’s only in his first term of parliament — is the lack of depth in WA state politics for the Liberals. They aren’t attracting women, nor people of caliber with significant pre-parliamentary careers. Nalder on paper is a former “banking executive” but he was a long was down the batting order in the state manager role he had at the big four bank he worked at.
This isn’t just a diversity issue, you need formidable people in parliament so that the decision makers have the experience they need to steer public policy.
One thing that the pandemic has exposed is just how important state parliaments and state governments are. Just how many policy levers they are responsible for. Just how powerful the role of premier is compared with the role of prime minister. Too many Liberals see a career in Canberra as first grade, only viewing state politics as akin to playing reserve grade footy.
The problem with that mindset is that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.
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