Vaccination only way out of our golden cage ‘trap’

Piccadilly Circus in London on Sunday. Picture: Getty Images

For the first half of Covid I was in Melbourne. And then, in the third quarter we moved to London. Having endured three lockdowns in Melbourne, we found ourselves in yet another in London. It was the same virus, it was the same lockdown on paper, it was a world apart in mindset. That experience has shown me how a divergent narrative has created two dramatically different mindsets approaching Covid.

Last year, Australia was at the top of the list in pandemic response. It was one of the first to secure its borders. It was effective in driving out the few cases that were there. Many states reached local elimination. There was a strict adherence to the required regulations by the public. As a result, as the country opened around Christmas the economy recovered well, life seemed to return to normal. It created the perception that the game was nearly over, that governments could ensure safety; as a result there was little tolerance of risk.

On the other hand, the UK looked like a case of laissez-faire chaos. The government took its time getting serious. There are different views about whether a herd immunity approach was intended or accidental. The virus was not contained before the country opened for a beer-drinking summer and government provided vouchers to “Eat Out to Help Out”. It led to surges in September that accelerated into Christmas and killed thousands more. Few families were left untouched. There was little confidence in the government’s ability to provide safety; it led to a sad and stoic acceptance of lives being lost, a much higher level of risk tolerance.

And then the game changed. Early this year the vaccine became available. The UK, by virtue of its academic prowess, manufacturing ability and early moves to acquire many vaccines, was one of the first large countries to get the vaccination drive going.

The machinery of the NHS kicked into gear and offered even a new arrival like me the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine within a day of arrival (when I could not even take it because I was in quarantine). When worries about the vaccine-related blood clot seemed to surface in the world press, the stoic public accepted them as a part of the bargain, a pragmatic government played it down. There was hardly a dent in vaccine acceptance rates. The vaccine drive continued in full force.

Australia, on the other hand, was caught napping in its golden cage. Perhaps it was a misplaced hope on the Queensland vaccine. It turned out to be unique among OECD nations for not having acquired enough different types of vaccines – money could not have been the issue. And the one that it did acquire, Oxford AstraZeneca, and could produce in enough quantities, somehow got maligned as being particularly risky.

Though the risk of death related to clots from the vaccine is in the same range as that from taking the oral contraceptive pill, it was generally seen as second best or too risky given the safety of the golden cage.

And then the game changed again as the dominant variant in the world seemed to pivot to Delta, and taming the virus became more challenging. By this time the UK had reached high levels of vaccination rates – and through a combination of vaccination and infections, nearly 92 per cent of the adult population shows antibodies today. As a result, the link between infection and deaths has dramatically changed from a 2 per cent death risk to less than 0.1 per cent at this stage. And that is how a tired, stoic nation declared an end to all restrictions even though there are 30,000 new cases today.

On the other hand, major Australian cities find themselves under siege – with low rates of vaccination, perhaps greater vaccine hesitancy, a pandemic raging in the world beyond with no end in sight and closed borders.

Vaccination is the only way out. But what one learns from the UK is that even with near universal vaccination the virus does not go away and deaths don’t stop. During the next few months, somehow, Australia will need to get to the 90 per cent vaccination range. But even with all the vaccinations, governments cannot eliminate this virus, and they cannot eliminate all deaths. Just like influenza. So, a new narrative of pragmatic acceptance of risk will need to be found.

Let me be clear. There is no winner here – because enough livelihoods have been disrupted and enough lives lost everywhere. We do have two kinds of plays. Those who conceded it in the first half and recovered in the third quarter through stoicism and grip. And those took a good early lead but squandered it in the third quarter for playing too defens­ively. Who knows what the final score would be, for this may be a game that never ends.

Shitij Kapur is principal and president of King’s College London. He was a resident of Melbourne through last year and moved to London in March.