Uninterrupted increases in life expectancy occur from the 1960s until 2019. The Covid pandemic shaved three years off average global life expectancy, with no country emerging unscathed. But most regions have bounced back, with life expectancy statistics showing increases once again.
There is one notable exception, however, and the implications of its continuing decline are alarming. Despite having the world’s most dynamic economy, and the highest healthcare spend per capita (at $19,086 per person, or 18.3 per cent of GDP) life expectancy in the US continues to reverse, undoing decades of progress.
Life expectancy in the US is now lower than that of China, Cuba, Lebanon and Chile, and significantly lower than every other advanced economy on Earth.
Although Covid killed more than one million Americans, the decline has continued after the pandemic has subsided, indicating Covid is not the only driver. The chief of mortality statistics at the National Centre for Health Statistics in the US told The New York Times: “Even small declines in life expectancy of a tenth or two-tenths of a year mean that on a population level, a lot more people are dying prematurely than they really should be.” And they certainly are. In just one year in 2021, 3600 American children died from gunshot wounds alone. In the years from 2019 to 2020, homicide among children aged 10-19 increased by 39 per cent.
More children now die from gunshot wounds in the US than from cancer, drowning or car accidents. No other rich nation has “gun-related incidents” in the top four most common causes of death for children, let alone the first.
Just this week, a three-year-old boy, and two primary school children died from gunshot wounds after visiting a Texas mall. And in March, a woman who identified as a man shot three children (and three adults) at a Christian primary school in Nashville.
This year is on track to be the worst year in recorded history for mass killings with four or more victims, with one incident now occurring every week. Such incidents are so frequent now that many Americans report feeling numb. According to the Gun Violence Archive, which records data on all gun deaths in the US, as of May 10, 15,090 people have died from gun-related incidents in 2023 alone. Of those, 6510 were homicides and 8580 were suicides. Statistics collected by the Archive show the number of children dying by homicide and suicide has been rising each year since 2018.
But it’s not only guns that are killing America’s young – drugs are too. In 2021, 106,000 Americans died from drug overdoses, the majority being opioid prescription pills. Drug overdoses in children have doubled since 2019, with deaths from overdose higher among white children and teenagers. Car accidents are also on the rise, with fatalities in 2022 hitting a 20-year high.
A recent analysis in the Financial Times found that one in 25 American children will not live to see their 40th birthday, and in every kindergarten classroom one set of parents can reasonably expect to bury a child.
Steven Woolf, a health statistician, explained the significance: “For decades, the overall death rate among US children has fallen steadily, thanks to breakthroughs in prevention and treatment of diseases like premature births, paediatric cancer and birth defects. We now see a dramatic reversal of this trajectory, meaning that our children are now less likely to reach adulthood. This is a red flashing light. We need to understand the causes and address them immediately to protect our children.”
Larry Summers, a former US secretary of the Treasury, described these statistics as, “the most disturbing set of data on America that I have encountered in a long time”. Remarking that the issue “transcends politics”, he noted the statistics were “especially scary remembering that demographics were the best early warning on the collapse of the USSR”.
It’s long been known that the dark side of American exceptionalism is its violence. From cowboy films to Pulp Fiction, Americans have had a romanticised view of violence for generations. But the frequency of school shootings, mass murders and homicides involving children is relatively new.
The recent losses in American life expectancy, underpinned by juvenile deaths, may be a statistical anomaly, and may correct itself. Juvenile deaths from suicide, homicide, car crashes and drug overdoses may begin to decline, leading the average life expectancy to increase again.
But if they don’t, and no action is taken, it will reflect a deep weariness within the nation, and a lack of confidence that change can be made. An editorial published recently in the Journal of the American Medical Association, puts it plainly: “A nation that begins losing its most cherished population – its children – faces a crisis like no other.”
Claire Lehmann is founding editor of online magazine Quillette.
More gas in the Bass? Depends if it’s in the national interest
By taking control of the moody offshore Victorian field, Woodside could find more gas, giving it major clout in Australian energy politics.
Pros and cons of competing approaches to boost nation’s lacklustre research spending
A battle is brewing over who should control Australia's research future, with scientists demanding billions from big business while corporations push back with their own plan.
The impact of global events is sometimes best explained by a simple graph. Looking at gains in average life expectancy across the globe, one observes steady increases from 1880 onwards, with dips during the Spanish flu, Great Depression, and the First and Second World Wars.