News from the US suggests that president-elect Donald J. Trump is perceived by many to be the US commander-in-chief while President Joe Biden fades into political nothingness ahead of the inauguration on January 20.
A couple of examples illustrate the point. Earlier this week, Trump gave an occasionally irreverent hour-long press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida where he spoke without the help of an autocue and answered journalists’ questions. Biden has not spoken to the US media since the presidential election on November 5.
What Trump critics often fail to accept is that the president-elect can be quite funny.
Appearing on Fox News’ Gutfeld! this week, comedian Tom Shillue referred to Trump’s “great sense of comic timing”.
More recently, the evidence indicates that terrorist organisation Hamas appears to be agreeing to major concessions with a view to attaining a ceasefire in Gaza. They appear to include the gradual release of hostages kidnapped by Hamas fighters on October 7, 2023, along with an agreement that some Israel Defence Forces contingents will remain in Gaza for an unspecified time.
Reports from AFP and other news outlets indicate that Hamas wants to do a deal with the Biden administration before Trump assumes office. This follows the president-elect’s warning earlier this month that if Hamas hostages are “not released prior to January 20, 2025 … those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States”.
In August 2012, US president Barack Obama announced a red line that Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was not to cross; namely, the use of chemical weapons against Syrian citizens. Assad crossed the line and the Obama administration did nothing.
It would be foolish for Hamas to take a risk with the unpredictable Trump, especially since Hamas has kidnapped some US citizens.
On November 22, American commentator EJ Dionne was interviewed by Patricia Karvelas on ABC Radio National Breakfast. Dionne is a Washington Post columnist and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He had this to say: “I think there’s one significant thing about the Trump presidency that we can’t underrate which is that he is … a lame duck.”
Dionne’s point was that the US constitution prevents someone from being elected more than twice. And so it does.
But this does not mean that Trump will be what in American terminology is termed a “lame duck”. Quite the contrary. If anything, it strengthens his presidency since, unlike first-term presidents, he is not looking for re-election in four years.
ABC journalist Chas Licciardello made a similar error when he appeared on Radio National’s Late Night Live. The date was December 12. Licciardello told David Marr: “Trump right now is at the zenith of his power, it only goes down from here; he becomes a lame duck or a lame dog, so to speak, from here.”
Like Dionne’s claim, this is absolute tosh. The facts speak for themselves. Trump – for better or worse – is influencing world politics from Florida’s Palm Beach before he returns to the White House after a four-year break.
Moreover, Trump’s strength within the contemporary Republican Party suggests his political influence will continue beyond his second term of office. That’s no lame duck.
Writing in Encyclopaedia Britannica recently, Tracy Grant cited Trump among her list of “Five Great Political Comebacks”. Grant wrote Trump’s “return to power is … stunning; he won both the popular and electoral (college) vote in 2024, and in doing so helped the Republican Party take control of the Senate and secure a larger majority in the House of Representatives”. She also acknowledged that Trump had overcome a state of “ignominy” to get re-elected.
The Encyclopaedia Britannica author also mentioned Vladimir Lenin, Napoleon I, Winston Churchill, Richard Nixon and Simeon Saxecoburggotski (who became prime minister of Bulgaria) in her list of five great political comebacks.
But Grant overlooked the achievement of Australian Liberal Party prime ministers Robert Menzies and John Howard.
Menzies became prime minister in April 1939 following the death in office of Joseph Lyons, who had led Australia’s successful economic recovery from the Depression. Menzies led the United Australia Party (the predecessor of the Liberal Party) to a narrow victory in the September 1940 election but headed a minority government dependent on the backing of two independents. He stepped down in August 1941 after losing the support of a majority of his colleagues. Menzies was devastated at having to do so.
Labor came to office in October 1941 after the independents moved their support to Labor. Menzies returned as leader of the opposition after Labor had a crushing victory at the August 1943 election. He formed the Liberal Party in late 1944 but failed to defeat the Ben Chifley-led Labor Party in September 1946.
Menzies was shattered by this loss and considered retiring from politics. At this time there was a familiar cry of “you can’t win with Menzies” heard on both sides of Australian politics. But the Liberal Party won under Menzies’ leadership in December 1949 and he retired undefeated in January 1966 – having won seven elections in a row. A great political comeback, to be sure.
And then there was Howard. He became Liberal Party leader in September 1985 and was doing reasonably well against the popular Labor leader Bob Hawke.
But in early 1987 Queensland Nationals premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen took part in a “Joh for PM” movement. It split the Coalition, Hawke called an early election for July 1987 and was returned comfortably to office. Howard lost the Liberal Party leadership to Andrew Peacock in May 1989.
But Howard returned as Liberal Party leader in January 1995 and defeated incumbent prime minister Paul Keating in March 1996. He won four elections before being defeated in 2007. Howard is Australia’s second longest serving prime minister after Menzies. Another great political comeback.
Both Menzies and Howard learnt from their previous mistakes and returned as more experienced and decisive leaders. Trump may well do the same. None of this trio was a lame duck.
Gerard Henderson is executive director of The Sydney Institute.
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