Trump’s back: Three predictions for Twitter under Elon Musk

Twitter has accepted a $US44bn takeover bid from Musk to acquire the social media company. Picture: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Twitter’s acceptance of Elon Musk’s $US44bn ($61.2bn) takeover offer marks a swift and dramatic turnaround for the social media company, and one that will have significant implications for the future of the platform and social media more broadly.

Seen currently by some as the enemy of conservatism and free speech, Twitter will be boldly reshaped by the freewheeling Musk who will let the platform off the leash. So what can we expect from Twitter under Elon?

Donald Trump returns

The former President will likely ditch Truth Social, which has been plagued by technical glitches and has fallen off the App Store charts despite a flashy start.

Twitter has more than 200 million active users globally and is where Trump knows he can reach the most people.

What good is free speech if there’s no-one around to hear it?

Twitter was a core plank of Trump’s successful election strategy in 2016, in which he bypassed the mainstream media and still dominated daily headlines, before he was eventually kicked off last year following the January 6 Capitol riots for breaching the company’s ‘glorification of violence’ policies.

Trump has told Fox News on Tuesday he will be sticking with Truth Social, but the truth is that his reach on that platform is minimal compared to the 89 million Twitter followers his @realdonaldtrump account had when it was permanently suspended.

A return to Twitter will be crucial to Trump’s 2024 election strategy, and will prove a real initial test of Musk’s commitment to free speech and open debate.

And let’s face it, the platform has been far less interesting without ‘covfefe’ and daily screeds about losers and haters.

Former US president Donald Trump was kicked off Twitter in 2021. Picture: Nicholas Kamm and Brendan Smialowski /AFP

Free speech flourishes

Elon Musk has made free speech the big selling point of his shock bid for Twitter, and has complained for years about perceived censorship on the platform.

The executive, who infamously called one of the Thai rescue divers a ‘pedo’ on Twitter and has consistently won both praise and heavy criticism for his own use of the platform, says he hopes his “worst critics” continue to use the platform.

“That is what free speech means,” he wrote. “Free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy, and Twitter is the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated.”

Expect user numbers to grow as a result. Twitter for years has been remained a relatively niche platform globally – a place used heavily by journalists and insiders but by no means a vital place for the majority of the population to spend their time – but under Musk Twitter should become the relevant ‘digital town square’ it always should have been.

One easy fix is to rely less on Twitter’s mysterious algorithm, which the company thinks knows best about what users should see and interact with, and instead default to a chronological timeline, not favouring one piece of content over another.

Twitter’s thousands-strong army of content moderators will also be given a mandate to loosen up, while expect many of the company’s most progressive employees to depart entirely.

Any shift towards more free speech will still require a heavy amount of technological work to make sure spammers and scammers are unable to thrive, given no one wants their feeds to be populated by ads for Viagra or Russian spambots.

Musk himself has promised he will “defeat the spam bots or die trying” and “authenticate all real humans”.

It will require a lot of work but by widening the public conversation to be more of a true and open debate – while still tackling spammers – Musk can make Twitter the must-use social networking app.

And yes, Twitter will also finally deploy an ‘edit’ button.

Billionaire Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and Space X, reached an agreement to purchase social media platform Twitter for $US44bn. Picture: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP

Facebook backs down from the metaverse

Twitter will likely thrive under Musk. Like him or not, the entrepreneur has a proven track record with the likes of PayPal, Tesla and SpaceX all defying the odds to become world-beating technology companies.

Twitter instantly becomes more relevant and more valuable under Musk, and that will have a ripple effect on its biggest competitors, chiefly Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram.

Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg has gone all-in on the ‘metaverse’, the digital worlds he think we all will spend our time inhabiting over the next decade, using virtual reality goggles.

Twitter’s renaissance under Musk will likely make it the place an increasing number of social media users want to spend their time and post their content, and will pour pressure on Facebook to rethink its move into the metaverse.

Facebook’s more sensible executives will realise people just want an online place to be able to debate, share and chat, and that any strategy to force people away from that – and into an awkward 3D world full of creepy-looking humanoid animated figures – is a losing one.

Meta’s rebrand last year made it virtually a laughing stock of the tech and analyst community and Facebook is no longer cool or relevant for young people.

If it wants to take the fight to Twitter under Elon it’s going to have to exit the metaverse, and return to its roots.