Trump and Zelensky patch up their relationship, but peace still looks elusive in Ukraine

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump have patched up their relationship after their White House clash. Picture: AFP

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Volodymyr Zelensky is back from the cold after his curious but friendly talk with Donald Trump, raising hopes that Trump will pay more attention to Ukraine’s side in the developing peace talks.

Although no major outcomes came from Trump’s one hour conversation with Zelensky, the fact that Trump called the chat “very good” marked a sharp change in tone after their disastrous White House meeting last month.

Coming just a day after Trump’s disappointing call with Vladimir Putin in which the Russian dictator rejected the US-brokered ceasefire proposal, the fact that Trump and Zelensky appear to have patched up their rift is a win for Ukraine.

But their conversation contains some curious elements, most especially Trump’s vague suggestion that the US acquire Ukrainian power plants, including nuclear facilities. Zelensky said the only facility mentioned was the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant which produced about 20 per cent of Ukraine’s power before the war but is now idle and in a state of disrepair in Russian-controlled territory.

Zelensky faces a difficult balancing act when considering Trump’s proposal for potential US control of Ukrainian power plants – a proposal which follows attempts by the White House to sign a deal giving America partial control of Ukraine’s raw minerals.

Having fought so hard to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty from the invading Russian forces, Zelensky would hardly want to cede such sovereign jewels to the US without them being linked to solid security guarantees.

Trump does not appear willing to offer such guarantees but he does make the point – which does have truth to it – that the “best protection for that infrastructure” is US ownership of it. In other words, Trump is suggesting that any plans Putin might one day have to reinvade Ukraine after a peace deal is signed would be greatly complicated by US ownership of key energy facilities.

But this is hardly a replacement for the type of security guarantee which Zelensky is seeking, which includes at the very least European peacekeepers on the ground in Ukraine.

Trump maintains publicly that the gap between Putin and Zelensky is narrowing and that progress towards a ceasefire is “very much on track”, but we have seen little in public to support that optimism.

Apart from the 30-day agreement to stop attacking energy infrastructure, Putin has refused to consider the overall ceasefire and has added extra conditions including the end of military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine during any ceasefire.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb hug at the end of a "Europe in support of Ukraine" discussion at the University of Helsinki on March 19. Picture: AFP

Ukraine has also flagged several ‘red lines’ in negotiations which Putin is unlikely to agree to. Even if a ceasefire or a peace deal is drawn along the current battlefield lines – leaving some 20 per cent of Ukraine in Russian hands – Zelensky says Ukraine will never formally recognise those stolen territories as belonging permanently to Russia.

“They are temporarily occupied, but this is temporary and they will not be Russian, ever,’’ Zelensky says. Putin in 2022 annexed the regions of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk despite the fact that Russia does not have full control of these regions. So if Ukraine was divided along the current frontline, Putin would also need to accept that Ukraine has partial control over regions he has already declared to be a part of Russia.

With the Trump-Zelensky call – was the case with Trump’s call to Putin – the key areas of contention in peace talks were not publicly flagged, leaving it open to speculation as to which side is ceding what ground to the other.

Despite Trump’s conversations with both Putin and Zelensky, we still do not know how the territorial carve-up between the two countries will unfold or what both sides are asking for in this respect.

Zelensky has lost an important bargaining chip after his troops were finally expelled this week from the only sliver of Russian territory they held in the region of Kurtz.

And we have still heard nothing about the central and most difficult obstacle – what Russia and Ukraine might be willing to accept in relation to any security guarantees for Ukraine in any ceasefire or peace deal. The two sides are so apart on this issue that it is difficult to see how a compromise will be reached.

But the fact that Trump and Zelensky are talking again after their Oval Office dust-up is something and as Trump tries to move forward with these fraught negotiations, small wins are better than no wins.