To save himself, PM must sacrifice Reynolds and Porter
Tony Burke has a rueful perspective on polls, which he often shares with people who think Labor should be ahead in every one of them.
Burke, one of Labor’s chief tacticians, opposition industrial relations spokesman, and unwavering supporter of Anthony Albanese, reminds them: “For six years we won the election every weekend — except the weekend it was actually held.”
It is a succinct, timely reality check for those who swing from excitement to depression with every movement, or lack of it, particularly in Newspoll, and especially during the long months of COVID-19, which rendered oppositions and their leaders largely irrelevant.
Australia’s extraordinary success in managing the pandemic has provided a protective shield for all levels of government. The weekend will again prove the power of incumbency as the Liberals head for annihilation in the west, thanks to Mark McGowan, whose stratospheric popularity has translated into votes.
Federally, now, the vibe is different. A firestorm has engulfed the Morrison government. What no one can tell is whether there will be lasting damage to those in charge, or whether voters will declare a pox on all their houses.
It has been a month since the government was thrown off course by allegations of rape. The situation, which went from bad to horrendous, has eased over the past couple of days, but will return with a vengeance next week when parliament resumes.
The careers of two cabinet ministers have been wrecked. Anyone who thinks they can come back to their jobs after their period of sick leave has ended is deluded. Greg Hunt is, of course, in a completely different category — although his hospitalisation with a serious infection has added to the whiff of fragility permeating the government.
The Prime Minister’s credibility and the quality of his political management have taken a battering, raising fears that the longer he stands by two people who have been rendered unfit to do their jobs — for whatever reason — the more damage he will sustain. Ultimately, if it means saving himself, he will have no choice but to sacrifice them.
Almost every other issue has been overtaken, swamped or sidelined. The rollout of the vaccine, good economic news, the plight of the aged. Some respite was provided by Meghan and Harry, but it blotted out his announcement on more money for apprenticeships and his doorstop was overwhelmed by more questions on the scandals.
Governments crave clear air to get their messages out. Lately it has been foul. Defence Minister Linda Reynolds has been undone by her handling of allegations by her former staffer, Brittany Higgins, that she was raped in Reynolds’ office in 2019. A minister perfect in every other way who can’t cope with question time or handle tough press conferences might just be able to survive. Even before her health scare, Reynolds was a long way from perfection.
Porter has been dragged down by allegations — which he has vehemently denied — that 33 years ago, as a 17-year-old, he raped a 16-year-old girl who took her own life only last year.
It was former foreign minister and former lawyer Julie Bishop who, with surgical precision, identified a critical gap in the defence presented by Porter and the Prime Minister, when she told ABC’s 7.30: “I think in order to deny allegations you would need to know the substance of the allegations or at least the detail of the allegations.” Quite.
Morrison, who has described Porter as an “innocent man under our law”, and Porter himself say they have not read the document prepared by the woman and sent to Morrison’s office, detailing what allegedly occurred that night and subsequently. An emerging problem for Morrison is that an increasing number of people either do not believe his accounts of his actions and conversations, or believe that he has mishandled these matters.
Another problem is the government’s lack of control over what breaks. That, and the realisation there could be more.
Gender and geography, where small-l liberals also worry about the government’s timidity on climate change, will play a big part in the replacement of Reynolds and Porter. In seats where hip-pocket issues matter more, like the outer suburbs, the cost will not be as great. In others — the inner suburbs, the leafy electorates where the women disparagingly referred to as doctors’ wives live, the places where independents thrive — is where it will hurt.
The government has a slim majority. It will lose seats at the next election, possibly more like in Warringah, as independents model themselves on Zali Steggall’s winning campaign against Tony Abbott. Groups calling themselves the “voices of (this or that seat)” have proliferated. The margins are wide but the demographics are changing for the Liberals in traditional areas, just as much as they are changing for Labor. The infiltration of the party by Christian nationalists with their ultra-conservative views also threatens to change the character of the party.
Both sides acknowledge NSW will decide the election. The Liberals are near saturation point in Queensland and unlikely to make headway in Victoria, where Liberal voters were almost as angry with Morrison as they were with the Premier, Dan Andrews, whose unfortunate accident also underscores how fragile and volatile politics and life can be.
In Tasmania, Labor hopes it can retain Bass, and the Liberals think Lyons is gettable. A progressive professional woman, and there is one on the horizon, could secure Boothby in South Australia following Nicolle Flint’s exit.
While Albanese has been to Queensland and WA, Morrison has stuck doggedly to NSW. If they can talk the Nationals out of running, the Liberals hope they can pick up Hunter, held by Joel Fitzgibbon, who has taken the novel approach of wooing voters by telling them how much Labor has ignored them. Shortland appears safe for Labor, as does Gilmore where insiders say Fiona Phillips has improved her margin.
And on it goes. Everything was pointing to a tight election even without the events of the past few weeks. Including Newspoll.
