If we can’t get nuclear submarines, and American decisions now make that extremely problematic at best, can we at least get the smart drones that make big modern navies vulnerable, as the Houthis in Yemen have shown and as the Ukrainians have shown against the Russians?
The answer seems to be no. We’re on track right now to have neither submarines nor drones, nor much of anything else.
The US decision to cut its production of Virginia nuclear submarines to just one in 2025 is a savage blow to Australia’s ambition to acquire nuclear-powered submarines by 2032.
Defence Minister Richard Marles claims Australia has an “iron clad commitment” from the US on the supply of Virginia class nuclear submarines to Australia beginning in 2032.
That is just plainly nonsense, and seems to be just another episode of the fantasy world which so many of Marles’ defence statements now inhabit. The congressional approval for the deal requires that the President should only provide subs to Australia if it would not compromise American capability. That needs an American production line of well over 2.3 nuclear subs per year.
But the Biden administration is now actively cutting US capability. Biden’s defence budget involves a notional increase of 1 per cent. That means a very big decrease after inflation. Huge amounts of money within defence are required to modernise the nuclear weapons arsenal, and to fund current operations.
It takes the US eight years to build a nuclear submarine. No new nuclear submarine will exist in 2032 that hasn’t begun construction by 2025.
We of course are not expecting a brand new Virginia in 2032, but a second-hand one. But the US will not take a sub out of its line of battle if it can’t more than replace it. Nuclear subs are the key military technology in which the US is miles ahead of China. But the US is already 17 nuclear subs below what it regards as a satisfactory fleet size.
Under Biden’s proposed budget, the US navy overall in 2025 will buy six ships but lose 10 to retirement. The US navy has 296 ships today, but will have only 287 by 2025. US navy chiefs have many times said the navy needs to be well over 300 ships.
The US army is shrinking too. Biden may be a good supporter of Ukraine and a mostly loyal friend of Israel, but he has shown no commitment to building an adequate US military or restoring the US defence industrial base.
The Biden administration has some woolly rhetoric about expansion down the track, but a government that won’t bite the bullet of defence expenditure today is extremely unlikely to develop the will to do so down the track, and all this at a time when Biden’s spending on social programs, green energy and the rest is so out of control that US debt is now $US3 trillion.
It’s now more than an even money bet that we will never get the Virginias, while the British-designed AUKUS nuclear subs are even more on Star Trek time, in a distant galaxy, far, far away.
If it takes Australian defence and security remotely seriously, the Albanese government must develop a Plan B.
By 2030, if everything goes exactly right, we might have one new light frigate.
The Houthis in Yemen have disrupted world trade and challenged US naval supremacy with cheap, clever drones. The Ukrainians have inflicted astonishing losses on the Russian fleet the same way.
Drones are a magnificent asymmetric weapon. Australian companies make brilliant drones and anti-drone technology. The Australian Defence Force won’t buy a single one.
Drones could give us the potential to hurt powerful adversary navies. We apparently have no interest in this.
Biden’s defence policy is terrible. Ours is even worse.
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