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Jason Gagliardi

‘This is now about the 30-year economic super cycle’

Jason Gagliardi
Swine flu: Australia’s surplus piggy bank looked sick as ScoMo shook out the pennies to fight coronavirus. Illustration: Eric Lobbecke
Swine flu: Australia’s surplus piggy bank looked sick as ScoMo shook out the pennies to fight coronavirus. Illustration: Eric Lobbecke

Welcome to the column where you provide the content. Paul Kelly weighed in on ScoMo’s stimulus, and concluded he’d nailed it compared to Donald Trump’s “ineptitude”. No sunshine from Ray:

“Even if Trump immediately stopped the coronavirus it would not restore market confidence. This is now not about the coronavirus. The virus was just the catalyst. 2020 is the 30 year anniversary of ‘the recession we had to have’.

“This is now about the 30-year economic super cycle. Every 30 years there is a global melt down. Think 1900, 1930, 1960, 1990, 2020. Read Ravi Battra’s (1985) ‘The Great Depression of 1990’.”

Testing times, said Leigh:

“Trump’s failure is in disbanding most of the CDC and their go kits. They have barely tested anyone and are burying their heads in the sand as they have no culture of a socialised healthcare system that can give a co-ordinated response.”

Frankie went big picture:

“It’s globalism and the promotion of a borderless world that has failed. Not President Trump. It’s . the promotion of China as the hub to all the world’s supply lines that has failed. Not Trump.

“President Trump has provided wonderful leadership in the face of this virus. He immediately closed flights from China. Sealed the southern border. Explained that more people have died from the common flu than this coronavirus and has provided aid to those that need of it in his country.

“The fact that he hasn’t promoted hysteria is what great leaders do. Globalists fan hysteria. Keeping people in a constant state of fear is how they choose to divide and rule. Nationalists like Trump unite people and end the constant hysteria.”

Peter the Great pondered:

“Trump shut the door to China while all the lefties complained … turned out to be the right decision. Trump now has to shut the door to the EU because the snivelling lefties in the EU were too weak to shut the borders to China. Apparently it’s Trumps fault.”

Tony@Thumbcreek wondered:

“Will he now have to shut the door to oil imports from his Saudi ally in order to protect his domestic oil producers? Lots of door slamming here — and that smacks of protectionism and isolation.”

Conrad is a Winner Again concluded:

“It’s what’s expected of the POTUS, but in times like these it’s a bridge to far for a real estate salesman and reality TV host who purchased the job, under the noses of the GOP.”

TonyW’s theory:

“Donald Trump gets a failure on his lack of global leadership. The US and Trump are very tired of the ‘global leadership’ meme. For several decades the elites and the global left have trumpeted the rise of China as a ‘global leader’ and pilloried the US for whatever they have done and whatever they have not.

“The USA got tired of it and elected Trump because he promised that he would focus on the US first. He has done that. Those who whinged and whined about the US being a bully are now whinging and whining about the US not doing enough.

“China, the new century’s ‘global leader’ has given the world coronavirus. The US, the nation which the elite boasted had passed its zenith, is now being attacked for not providing leadership.

“Well hold on. If China wants to take its place on the world stage as a leader then it needs to take responsibility. It can’t deliver disaster to the world and then expect everyone else to pick up the pieces.

“Trump is looking to US interests first. If we don’t like that then we need to take some responsibility and fill the gap. Where is the UN, Merkel, Macron, Trudeau, Ardern? All prepared to slag off at those who carry the load until the proverbial hits the fan. Now the chickens have come home to roost.”

IanR interjected:

“If Trump is so good why did the Dow drop 10pc in the worst sitting since the crash of 1987. The market has rapidly worked out that Trump is totally but totally, out of his depth.”

John shut up shop:

“Trump’s ineptitude? The Democrats, the EU and the left in general want open borders and free unchecked movement around the globe. You know the Global Migration Pact and how migration is a human right? How will that work in a global pandemic scenario, I wonder?”

Nick noted:

“The majority in America don’t like Trump. Biden is beating him in every poll sometimes by double digits. The stock market crashed yesterday because Trumps speech bordered on the ridiculous. The man is completely out of his depth and the Republican Party should replace him now because he will have no hope against Biden.”

Damon doubled down:

“Trump is an ignorant narcissistic lying buffoon totally out of his depth.”

John jumped in:

“The hapless Trump couldn’t even read his lines right off the teleprompter and had to back up with a tweet to stop confusion about banning trade out of Europe. A couple of days ago he was saying ‘nothing to see here’ and now it’s clueless panic stations. The US has done less COVID-19 testing than NSW because Trump has been watching too much TV and can’t be bothered doing his job.”

Wendy weighed in:

“Calling fail on any western leader is a bit rich. Lay the blame where it belongs. At the source. What about the woeful sycophantic fail by WHO? Hopefully the world will demand that what caused this virus is addressed and the behaviours which unleashed it on the human population are stopped. But I doubt the UN has the fortitude.”

Pure dread: A fearful Lewis Hamilton fled the Australian Grand Prix in a screech of burning rubber. Picture: AAP
Pure dread: A fearful Lewis Hamilton fled the Australian Grand Prix in a screech of burning rubber. Picture: AAP

The best Formula One driver in the world, Lewis Hamilton, launched a scathing attack on race organisers for going ahead before winning the race for the airport and an escape from Australia. Keith was confused:

“Don’t go the race, but go to the footy? Stay at home, but go out and spend to avoid a recession? This is all getting as bad as climate change. Speaking of which, the virus has shut that lot up, for now anyway.”

Brendan saw silver lining:

“That’s because the virus doesn’t like warm weather. Global warming has a positive benefit.”

Eric added:

“This is a global reset, a globalist’s nightmare.”

Henry hailed Hamilton:

“This bloke is talking real sense here. Mass crowds and Australia coming into the cooler weather a perfect scenario for the virus.

“I live in Macau. We border China. From the very first moment the Macau Government learned of the virus outbreak in Wuhan it closed off its border. They closed the casinos and the move was not even questioned by the casino operators who were losing HKD$100 million per day.

“The people’s safety was paramount. They closed down the horse racing for a month. Government offices shut and schools will resume here on April 20. Anything that involved crowds congregating was discouraged.

“The end result — Macau got 10 cases, all people that had slipped in from Wuhan. All 10 are recovered completely because of early detection we had no deaths. After each patient recovered and left hospital they were required to spend another 14 days in a quarantine facility.

“I’ve been reading comments here in this paper since this started. Everyone was and still are taking this too cheaply. People whinging about Uni students not being able to travel; the loss of tourism etc. money, money, money.

“Forget about how seasonal flu kills people each year. Seasonal flu has never bought the world economy to its knees. This has the potential to unless stopped. Full on isolation is the key, it’s only for a few weeks, that’s a pittance in a lifetime.”

Paul diamond pointed out:

“Is this the same chap who says we all should do more about climate change? Would love to know Lewis’ carbon footprint.”

Doom from David:

“Can’t imaging a worse event happening for the spread of the virus than the Grand Prix. Bring people from all over the world together including virus hot spots where it only takes a few infected people to spread it to a large number who will then go to all parts of Australia spreading the virus.”

J’s say:

“Ah, Lewis, you and your team turned up and are in Melbourne right at this moment. Are you perchance criticising/admonishing yourself, in the same breath? You could easily have stayed at home.”

John said:

“I am a rusted on F1 fan, following since Jack Brabham in 1959. It is a bit rich Lewis making snide remarks about cash. His fee for this event is north of US$1m. He has skin in the game.”

Andrew approved:

“Well done Lewis. You appear to be the only person in F1 with any common sense.”

Darren drove it home:

“Lewis Hamilton is right, time for the safety car.”

Turin trouble: Residents look for the light at the end of the tunnel as Italy’s coronavirus lockdown continues.
Turin trouble: Residents look for the light at the end of the tunnel as Italy’s coronavirus lockdown continues.

As Italy’s path to chaos unfolded, debate raged over whether Australia should close its borders. Peter shared:

“We are in Italy — in home isolation now. Ours is a degree above the rest of Italy as we flew in last week and we cannot leave the house under absolutely any circumstances. Thank goodness for the beautiful kindness of Italians. We find food left on our doorstep breakfast, lunch and dinner.

“Not many people cone out of quarantine 10 kilos heavier but it’s likely with us because of the sheer warmth and generosity of the Italians. The observation I most want to share is that despite the ideological fragmentation of Italians politically, they’ve joined together in support of their government’s decisions regarding COVID-19. There’s no moaning, no blaming and no hysteria. Just a concerned willingness to obey instructions so that they can beat this catastrophe. Australians have a lot to learn.”

Adrian argued:

“Italy has had of the laziest initial responses to the virus, which is why they are the messy situation now. To praise them now is just wrong. We in Australia look like we are have made the same mistake with our initial lazy response.”

“No mention of the incredible success of Taiwan in containing the coronavirus. 47 infected and just one death. An independent nation with the population of Australia. Yes, an independent nation. Not a part of, or owned by China.”

Andrew fantasised:

“And this is why Taiwan’s President Tsai will inevitably take the leadership of all China as the Xi’s dictatorship falls. Only the democratically elected Tsai can repair China’s completely broken public health, change the CCP culture of systematic corruption and gain the confidence of the Chinese people at a time when civil unrest grows by the day. West Berlin was called on to save and lead East Berlin. Taipei will be called on to save and lead Beijing.”

A saw an advantage:

“And also an island like us. Let’s make use of our natural advantage!”

Antony argued:

“It has to do with the age distribution: 70pc of the population in S Korea is less than 54 years old, Japan has an older total population with about 55pc less than 54 years old. Italy also has an older population and have a higher death rate.”

John was jaded:

“So WHO (led by a former Ethiopian foreign minister who signed off on Chinese loans) decrees a pandemic … global Stockmarket crashes … western economies weakened, in Trump’s election year. Who could possibly benefit?”

: c: was cross:

“How can there be case projections if there is strict rationing of the test kits, which is what is going on currently. Medical testing centres at hospitals refuse to test people unless they have been overseas recently or have had close contact with a confirmed case. And yet there is public acknowledgment that there is probably undetected cases of infection walking around in the community.

“How do I know whether the student from UQ who coughed on me (making me so sick for the last month that I am shaking with strong chest pains after having bad flu-like symptoms and asthma, but can’t get a test because I haven’t been overseas recently) in the local supermarket of a G of 8 University suburb, was also as yet undiagnosed?

“There are currently 2 confirmed student cases of Wuhan coronavirus at the university and who knows how many unconfirmed cases walking around in the community. How many local residents and their families have been put at risk in this same way? And yet lectures go on as normal at the university. The federal government has to take control of ‘our’ universities because they clearly don’t care what happens to the Australian people as long as they resume their ‘rivers of gold’.”

Dianne’s dream:

“Why don’t we just turn off the lights and shut up shop for 14 days? Everyone can go into isolation and we will emerge happy and healthy … with our economy in tatters, supply chains destroyed and crime rate through the roof. There will be no electricity, no emergency services, no frontline medical staff, nobody unloading ships at port, no trucks delivering everything we consume.

“All the milking cows would have died and most food production systems would be destroyed with nobody tending to the crops and livestock. The supermarkets would be full of rotting produce, our toilets will back up, the garbage will be piled up high and half the population will be dead from dehydration.

“Is it worth willingly putting the country under that load because 3 elderly people have died here? More people die from self inflicted alcohol or drug related harm each day. Let us get a grip here.”

Plymatic pointed out:

“Deaths are only part of the issue. Look at Italy. The medical system is crashing with the numbers requiring hospitalisation. This is a health emergency and possibly our biggest test.”

Sally suggested:

“The federal and state governments need to get tough now and ban all mass gatherings and make it compulsory for employers to get people to work from home wherever possible.

They should close down schools, childcare and universities until the virus stops spreading so fast.

“Everyone coming into the country must put themselves into isolation for 14 days, with large fines for breaching this. People should not be allowed to travel within the country except for essential work reasons. For all the pain of doing this now, immediately, we will avoid being stricken like Italy.”

Peter longed for the past:

“How about we return to our standards of 40 years ago. Everyone to carry a handkerchief and cough or sneeze in it. Wash hands and face prior to eating food and after using a toilet. Business to pay cleaners a decent wage and have them disinfect desk tops and office public areas. Outdoor cafes, with dogs urinating on the footpath, and the footpath all black with stains from cooking oils and food scraps, demonstrates, how low our public hygiene standards have become.”

Damian was damning:

“As of yesterday, people were still coming into Sydney airport from all over the globe with no testing required. Just some signs asking them to self-report their condition and where they’ve come from. Slack city.”

Last word to Chook:

“Have you stopped to consider even for an instant what is coming for our health system — a system which is stretched to the limit in a normal flu season. Health workers are going to have to make life and death decisions on relatively still healthy people, what of their state of mind, how do they cope.

“Conditions which at the moment are treatable in our health system but require intensive care will become death sentences. What is coming has not been seen since 1919. It is a black lottery stacked against older people — the people who made this country what it is today.”

Each Friday the cream of your views on the news rises and we honour the voices that made the debate great. To boost your chances of being featured, please be pertinent, pithy and preferably make a point. Solid arguments, original ideas, sparkling prose, rapier wit and rhetorical flourishes may count in your favour. Civility is essential. Comments may be edited for length.

Jason Gagliardi

Jason Gagliardi is the engagement editor and a columnist at The Australian, who got his start at The Courier-Mail in Brisbane. He was based for 25 years in Hong Kong and Bangkok. His work has been featured in publications including Time, the Sunday Telegraph Magazine (UK), Colors, Playboy, Sports Illustrated, Harpers Bazaar and Roads & Kingdoms, and his travel writing won Best Asean Travel Article twice at the ASEANTA Awards.

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/this-is-now-about-the-30year-economic-super-cycle/news-story/793d939f86fbda87ca7ebc08eee9e3d6