The China dragon has entered – and it won’t be leaving

Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam discusses the national security law at her weekly press conference in Hong Kong on Tuesday. Picture: AFP

The doctrine of massive retaliation has delivered a stable world for decades. It will continue to prevent world wars but it does little to hinder minor skirmishes. The Russians these days are hardly considered such a rogue state but, just like the situation where a philandering bloke gets rid of a mistress, a vacancy is created. China filled the void pretty quickly.

With our huge reliance on China to buy our minerals, and our gleeful acceptance of cheap Chinese goods from widgets to clothing, the relationship with China is crucially important. Talk of finding new markets to ensure we are not over-reliant is unfortunately just that — talk. It is never easy to wean yourself off something that has worked for a long time.

What is more, neither will diversifying our trading partners be a quick and simple process. A prolonged interruption to our global trade would send the economy south very quickly.

The Chinese value trade with Australia because we deliver our goods, be they primary or secondary, on time and on budget. It is a nearly perfect trading relationship. Australia is the right fit for China. We have a stable system, so that if a government loses an election the other side of politics takes over in a relatively smooth transition to power.

Nonetheless, Australians have a healthy distaste for communist dictatorships. The Chinese legal system is truly inscrutable. The problem with being arrested in China is that the act means you have already been found guilty. Essentially, you then have to prove your innocence and hope you will be given a forum where you can establish that you have not committed any crime. If that opportunity is not swiftly granted, you can spend a considerable length of time as a guest of the Chinese government. And judging from the reports of those who have been unlucky enough to find themselves in this situation, it is far from recommended.

What China is banking on is that recent controversies, including threats to Australian exports, will blow over soon and be swiftly forgotten. The world would prefer to bark at China, like the annoying yapping dog you pass when you go for a walk, and then allow a Band-Aid to be placed over the wound so we can all move on.

You can understand the protest marches in Hong Kong, where activists fight for the maintenance of the Basic Law in accordance with Beijing’s promises contained in the doctrine of “one country, two systems”. It is obvious to all now that China never had any intention of honouring its promises to the people of Hong Kong. This territory will be crushed and absorbed into China. It will then succumb to the judgment of Chinese communism.

While writing this column, I have seen Scott Morrison announcing a five-year visa extension for those people from Hong Kong presently in Australia. While China will see this action in a negative light, Australia has to be prepared to wait out China’s anger. Democracies such as ours must always stand for freedom and human rights no matter what the circumstances or who we might be offending.

Sometimes that stance may be uncomfortable but it must be taken. Ever since Malcolm Fraser took up the cudgels against apartheid, Australia has often been at the forefront of the push for greater freedoms around the world. It seemed to me that Fraser felt a great deal of guilt for plunging Australia into a period of deep division and spent much of his later life trying to assuage that guilt. Karma gets us all in the end.

It is easy to imagine how people such as Shaoquett Moselmane may have been seduced by the Chinese. Regular first-class flights to and from China while sitting at the very front of the plane, six-star accommodation with gourmet food at every meal. Just for a while he was treated as a very important person. This was in accord with his own view of himself, but not a vision of him most people I know would agree with. Sitting alone on the crossbenches is akin to being homeless. A sad political ending for someone who could have, and should have, achieved much more in his career.

The same fate awaits anyone else stupid enough to fall victim to Chinese blandishments. The lure of the first-class lifestyle has seduced too many politicians before him, but those examples were never going to stop him or slow him down.

Meanwhile, in Hong Kong anyone who has taken to the streets is finding it hard to sleep at night because they fear the knock on their door from the authorities who are enraged at the prospect of protest, let alone its practice by hundreds of thousands of citizens. China will win this showdown. They will pick off enough activists to imprison to eventually make taking to the streets just not worth the risk. They will also up the ante when it comes to how the police handle demonstrations. When the police start beating up those who have had the courage to risk the wrath of the authorities, the fervour of this peaceful revolution will dissipate.

It would not be easy for those protests to continue in any event. When a cause is utterly without hope of success, the fervour for it weakens — and China will make no concessions of any kind.