Tasmanian election: Peter Gutwein’s early election gamble pays off ... just

Premier Peter Gutwein gives his victory speech in the tally room. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Richard Jupe

The gamble of an early election appears to have paid off for Peter Gutwein and the Liberals…just.

While not yet able to claim majority, the Liberals have at least 12 seats and most likely the magic 13 to govern alone in the 25 seat Assembly.

That result rests on tight tussle for the fifth seat in Hobart-based Clark, between one of several Liberals and the woman the party dumped on the election eve, independent Sue Hickey.

Given that the Liberals effectively had 13 seats before the election, with independent Madeleine Ogilvie joining the party just after the poll was called, voters might wonder what all the fuss was about.

But for Gutwein, barring any unexpected twist in the sometimes torturous Hare-Clark count, it means a fresh mandate, in his own right, for another four years.

The Liberals, though, will likely be just one defection or unexpected countback away from minority government, which Gutwein has now repeatedly said he will never be a part of.

Labor meanwhile has gone backwards, yet again, and faces intervention by the party’s national executive, to sort out the infighting and overreach by hard-left powerbrokers before the federal poll.

Leader Rebecca White cannot be entirely blamed for the party falling short, having brought the party back from an even worse result after a disastrous start to the campaign. She is now vulnerable, though, to a challenge from David O’Byrne.

The Greens and independents have done well, the minor party enjoying a significant swing, while voters in Clark have elected at least one centre-left independent and shown a distaste for the major parties.