Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong demonstrated both his strategic hard headedness and his friendship for Australia in a critical exchange in his joint press conference with Anthony Albanese.
When you get those new nuclear submarines, Lee declared, they will always be welcome in Singapore.
Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr, the Philippines President, under hostile questioning by the ABC, also volunteered that “we support AUKUS, we support the Quad”.
These comments from two of ASEAN’s most important leaders put the lie to the typically nonsensical intervention from former prime minister Paul Keating to the effect that Australia, in expressing concern about the danger of conflict in the South China Sea, is being foolishly pro-American and operating against an ASEAN consensus.
Indonesia’s Defence Minister, Prabowo Subianto, who will take over the presidency in October, is about to sign a new and intimate defence agreement with Australia, also apparently undisturbed by AUKUS.
Lee, Marcos and Prabowo, like other Southeast Asian leaders, apparently failed to take heed of any of Keating’s earlier lessons on how to run their countries and region. Albanese should emulate them.
Keating was particularly upset with Foreign Minister Penny Wong, saying she had “rattled the China can” in a speech in which she expressed concern at the danger of military conflict in the region.
Keating’s attempt to police the speech even of the Albanese government sets a high standard of subservience to Beijing’s strategic interests if even so gentle and modest a speech as Wong’s could cause this slightly demented reaction.
Australia will lose a great friend when Lee steps down later this year. (He too has expressed grave concern about the dangers of military conflict between the US and China in the region). Lee is the senior regional statesman; steady, shrewd, sound and reliable. Singapore pursues its friendship with Australia because it is in Singapore’s national interests to do so. Australia follows similar reasoning. But it’s a genuine, long-lasting and deep friendship nonetheless.
Tony Abbott had the vision that Australia should have with Singapore the same ease and intimacy as it has with New Zealand. In many ways the Singapore relationship surpasses that with New Zealand. The Kiwis, unlike Singapore, won’t allow our nuclear-powered submarines to visit.
This is shaping as a successful ASEAN meeting for the Albanese government, and for Australia more generally. All manner of joint projects and initiatives have been announced. The ASEAN Australia communique will be bland and won’t mention China by name, but that’s entirely in the nature of ASEAN.
Lee, an absolute master of all ASEAN forms, was perhaps a little droll when he spoke of ASEAN/China negotiations on a joint code of conduct covering the South China Sea. These negotiations, he said, “have been under way for some time”.
To be precise, ASEAN first proposed the code of conduct to Beijing in 1996. It took several years even to begin formal negotiations.
That’s the ASEAN way, and the ASEAN genius. It doesn’t solve problems, it manages them, at best it tranquillises them, in some happy cases it finally euthanises them.
Lee reiterated Singapore’s strong support for the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. This is important because Beijing is in violation of UNCLOS in the South China Sea. Lee also paid tribute to the vital role Australia has played in Southeast Asian security since World War II. Lee’s comments, though entirely agreeable, rebuke the absurd Labor propaganda claim that it turned Australia towards the region after relentless Coalition neglect. Lee cited Australian participation in regional security in virtually every decade since the 1950s, most of it under Coalition governments. Those pesky facts!
The Albanese government’s signature initiative for this summit, a $2bn green investment facilitation fund, looks just like all the other failed initiatives of this type, full of goodwill, very unlikely to amount to much.
I’ve been covering Australia/Southeast Asia relations for 40 years and I’ve heard the same lamentations – lack of Australian investment, failure to diversify trade – from every Australian government in that period. We export commodities and services like education and tourism. We don’t invest much.
Everyone, it seems, wants to subsidise green investment. But if it needs subsidy it’s probably not really investment.
Similarly, while Marcos in his fine speech to Australia’s parliament repeated the pro forma call for developed countries to do more on climate change, The Philippines itself is building seven coal-fired power stations. Indonesia has a huge coal program, and is building more coal power than any nation except China and India.
Southeast Asian leaders operate effortlessly with all kinds of dualities. Twas ever thus.
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